BackgroundUsing a large dataset, we evaluated prevalence and severity of alterations in liver enzymes in COVID-19 and association with patient-centred outcomes.MethodsWe included hospitalized patients with confirmed or suspected SARS-CoV-2 infection from the International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infection Consortium (ISARIC) database. Key exposure was baseline liver enzymes (AST, ALT, bilirubin). Patients were assigned Liver Injury Classification score based on 3 components of enzymes at admission: Normal; Stage I) Liver injury: any component between 1-3x upper limit of normal (ULN); Stage II) Severe liver injury: any component \u22653x ULN. Outcomes were hospital mortality, utilization of selected resources, complications, and durations of hospital and ICU stay. Analyses used logistic regression with associations expressed as adjusted odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI).ResultsOf 17,531 included patients, 46.2% (8099) and 8.2% (1430) of patients had stage 1 and 2 liver injury respectively. Compared to normal, stages 1 and 2 were associated with higher odds of mortality (OR 1.53 [1.37-1.71]; OR 2.50 [2.10-2.96]), ICU admission (OR 1.63 [1.48-1.79]; OR 1.90 [1.62-2.23]), and invasive mechanical ventilation (OR 1.43 [1.27-1.70]; OR 1.95 (1.55-2.45). Stages 1 and 2 were also associated with higher odds of developing sepsis (OR 1.38 [1.27-1.50]; OR 1.46 [1.25-1.70]), acute kidney injury (OR 1.13 [1.00-1.27]; OR 1.59 [1.32-1.91]), and acute respiratory distress syndrome (OR 1.38 [1.22-1.55]; OR 1.80 [1.49-2.17]).ConclusionsLiver enzyme abnormalities are common among COVID-19 patients and associated with worse outcomes.
\n \n\n \n \nBackgroundThe South African COVID-19 Modelling Consortium (SACMC) was established in late March 2020 to support planning and budgeting for COVID-19 related healthcare in South Africa. We developed several tools in response to the needs of decision makers in the different stages of the epidemic, allowing the South African government to plan several months ahead.MethodsOur tools included epidemic projection models, several cost and budget impact models, and online dashboards to help government and the public visualise our projections, track case development and forecast hospital admissions. Information on new variants, including Delta and Omicron, were incorporated in real time to allow the shifting of scarce resources when necessary.ResultsGiven the rapidly changing nature of the outbreak globally and in South Africa, the model projections were updated regularly. The updates reflected 1) the changing policy priorities over the course of the epidemic; 2) the availability of new data from South African data systems; and 3) the evolving response to COVID-19 in South Africa, such as changes in lockdown levels and ensuing mobility and contact rates, testing and contact tracing strategies and hospitalisation criteria. Insights into population behaviour required updates by incorporating notions of behavioural heterogeneity and behavioural responses to observed changes in mortality. We incorporated these aspects into developing scenarios for the third wave and developed additional methodology that allowed us to forecast required inpatient capacity. Finally, real-time analyses of the most important characteristics of the Omicron variant first identified in South Africa in November 2021 allowed us to advise policymakers early in the fourth wave that a relatively lower admission rate was likely.ConclusionThe SACMC's models, developed rapidly in an emergency setting and regularly updated with local data, supported national and provincial government to plan several months ahead, expand hospital capacity when needed, allocate budgets and procure additional resources where possible. Across four waves of COVID-19 cases, the SACMC continued to serve the planning needs of the government, tracking waves and supporting the national vaccine rollout.
\n \n\n \n \nBackgroundSevere malaria in pregnancy causes maternal mortality, morbidity, and adverse foetal outcomes. The factors contributing to adverse maternal and foetal outcomes are not well defined. We aimed to identify the factors predicting higher maternal\u00a0mortality and to describe the foetal mortality and morbidity associated with severe falciparum malaria in pregnancy.MethodsA retrospective cohort study was conducted of severe falciparum malaria in pregnancy, as defined by the World Health Organization severe malaria criteria. The patients were managed prospectively by the Shoklo Malaria Research Unit (SMRU) on the Thailand-Myanmar border or were included in hospital-based clinical trials in six Southeast Asian countries. Fixed-effects multivariable penalised logistic regression was used for analysing maternal mortality.ResultsWe included 213 (123 SMRU and 90 hospital-based) episodes of severe falciparum malaria in pregnancy managed between 1980 and 2020. The mean maternal age was 25.7 (SD 6.8) years, and the mean gestational age was 25.6 (SD 8.9) weeks. The overall maternal mortality was 12.2% (26/213). Coma (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 7.18, 95% CI 2.01-25.57, p\u2009=\u20090.0002), hypotension (aOR 11.21, 95%CI 1.27-98.92, p\u2009=\u20090.03) and respiratory failure (aOR 4.98, 95%CI 1.13-22.01, p\u2009=\u20090.03) were associated with maternal mortality. Pregnant women with one or more of these three criteria had a mortality of 29.1% (25/86) (95%CI 19.5 to 38.7%) whereas there were no deaths in 88 pregnant women with hyperparasitaemia (>\u200910% parasitised erythrocytes) only or severe anaemia (haematocrit\u2009ConclusionsVital organ dysfunction in pregnant women with severe malaria was associated with a very high maternal and foetal mortality whereas severe anaemia or hyperparasitaemia alone were not associated with poor prognosis, which may explain the variation of reported mortality from severe malaria in pregnancy. Access to antenatal care must be promoted to reduce barriers to early diagnosis and treatment of both malaria and anaemia.
\n \n\n \n \nFocusing only on biomedical targets neglects the important role that psychosocial factors play in effective diabetes self-management. This study aims to understand the lived experiences of children with Type 1 Diabetes (T1DM) in Kenya. Children ( n = 15) participated in focus group discussions and photo diary data collection. Focus group discussions and semi-structured interviews were also conducted with caregivers ( n = 14). We describe an adaptation to diabetes over time, identifying four overarching themes: knowledge and awareness, economic exclusion, the importance of social support, and striving for normality. Photo diaries are then categorized to explore daily realities of diabetes management. Children with T1DM in Kenya face varied barriers to care but can lead a \u201cnormal\u201d and fulfilling life, provided adequate support is in place. To improve the lives of children with diabetes in this context and others like it, stakeholders must take note of children\u2019s experiences and recognize their multidimensional needs.
\n \n\n \n \nAbstract\nIntroduction\nSymptoms reported following the administration of investigational drugs play an important role in decisions for registration and treatment guidelines. However, symptoms are subjective, and interview methods to quantify them are difficult to standardise. We explored differences in symptom reporting across study sites of a multicentre antimalarial trial, with the aim of informing trial design and the interpretation of safety and tolerability data.\n\nMethods\nData were derived from the IMPROV trial, a randomised, placebo-controlled double blinded trial of high dose primaquine to prevent Plasmodium vivax recurrence conducted in eight study sites in Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Indonesia and Vietnam. At each follow up visit a 13-point symptom questionnaire was completed. The number and percentage of patients with clinically relevant symptoms following the administration of primaquine or placebo, were reported by study site including vomiting, diarrhoea, anorexia, nausea, abdominal pain and dizziness. Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate the confounder-adjusted site-specific proportion of each symptom.\n\nResults\nA total of 2,336 patients were included. The greatest variation between sites in the proportion of patients reporting symptoms was for anorexia between day 0 and day 13: 97.3% (361/371) of patients in Arba Minch, Ethiopia, reported the symptom compared with 4.7% (5/106) of patients in Krong Pa, Vietnam. Differences attenuated slightly after adjusting for treatment arm, age, sex, day 0 parasite density and fever; with the adjusted proportion for anorexia ranging from 4.8% to 97.0%. Differences between sites were greater for symptoms graded as mild or moderate compared to those rated as severe. Differences in symptom reporting were greater between study sites than between treatment arms within the same study site.\n\nConclusion\nDespite standardised training, there was large variation in symptom reporting across trial sites. The reporting of severe symptoms was less skewed compared to mild and moderate symptoms, which are likely to be more subjective. Trialists should clearly distinguish between safety and tolerability outcomes. Differences between trial arms were much less variable across sites, suggesting that the relative difference in reported symptoms between intervention and control group is more relevant than absolute numbers and should be reported when possible.\n\nTrial registration\nClinicaltrials.gov: NCT01814683; March 20th, 2013.\n
\n \n\n \n \nThailand faced a dilemma of which groups to prioritise with a limited first tranche of COVID-19 vaccinations in early 2021, at a time when there was low incidence and low mortality in the country. A mathematical modelling analysis was performed to compare the potential short-term impact of allocating the available doses to either the high severity group (over 65-year-olds) or the high transmission group (aged 20-39). At the time of the analysis, there was uncertainty about the precise characteristics of the vaccines available, in terms of their potential impact on transmission and reductions to the severity of infection. As such, a range of vaccine characteristic scenarios, with differing levels of severity and transmission reductions were explored. Using the evidence available at the time regarding severity reduction of infection due to the vaccines, the model suggested that vaccinating high severity group should be the priority if reductions in deaths is the priority. Vaccinating this group was found to have a direct impact on reducing the number of deaths, while the incidence and hospitalisations remained unchanged. However, the model found that vaccinating the high transmission group with a vaccine with sufficiently high protection against infection (more than 70%) could provide enough herd effects to delay the expected epidemic peak, resulting in both case and death reductions in both target groups. The model explored a 12-month time horizon. These analyses helped to inform the vaccination strategy in Thailand throughout 2021 and can inform future modelling studies for policymaking when the characteristics of vaccines are uncertain.
\n \n\n \n \nBackgroundUnderstanding the availability of rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) is essential for attaining universal health care and reducing health inequalities. Although routine data helps measure RDT coverage and health access gaps, many healthcare facilities fail to report their monthly diagnostic test data to routine health systems, impacting routine data quality. This study sought to understand whether non-reporting by facilities is due to a lack of diagnostic and/or service provision capacity by triangulating routine and health service assessment survey data in Kenya.MethodsRoutine facility-level data on RDT administration were sourced from the Kenya health information system for the years 2018-2020. Data on diagnostic capacity (RDT availability) and service provision (screening, diagnosis, and treatment) were obtained from a national health facility assessment conducted in 2018. The two sources were linked and compared obtaining information on 10 RDTs from both sources. The study then assessed reporting in the routine system among facilities with (i) diagnostic capacity only, (ii) both confirmed diagnostic capacity and service provision and (iii) without diagnostic capacity. Analyses were conducted nationally, disaggregated by RDT, facility level and ownership.ResultsTwenty-one per cent (2821) of all facilities expected to report routine diagnostic data in Kenya were included in the triangulation. Most (86%) were primary-level facilities under public ownership (70%). Overall, survey response rates on diagnostic capacity were high (>\u200970%). Malaria and HIV had the highest response rate (>\u200996%) and the broadest coverage in diagnostic capacity across facilities (>\u200976%). Reporting among facilities with diagnostic capacity varied by test, with HIV and malaria having the lowest reporting rates, 58% and 52%, respectively, while the rest ranged between 69% and 85%. Among facilities with both service provision and diagnostic capacity, reporting ranged between 52% and 83% across tests. Public and secondary facilities had the highest reporting rates across all tests. A small proportion of health facilities without diagnostic capacity submitted testing reports in 2018, most of which were primary facilities.ConclusionNon-reporting in routine health systems is not always due to a lack of capacity. Further analyses are required to inform other drivers of non-reporting to ensure reliable routine health data.
\n \n\n \n \nRing-infected erythrocytes are the predominant asexual stage in the peripheral circulation but are rarely investigated in the context of acquired immunity against Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Here we compare antibody-dependent phagocytosis of ring-infected parasite cultures in samples from a controlled human malaria infection (CHMI) study (NCT02739763). Protected volunteers did not develop clinical symptoms, maintained parasitaemia below a predefined threshold of 500 parasites/\u03bcl and were not treated until the end of the study. Antibody-dependent phagocytosis of both ring-infected and uninfected erythrocytes from parasite cultures was strongly correlated with protection. A surface proteomic analysis revealed the presence of merozoite proteins including erythrocyte binding antigen-175 and -140 on ring-infected and uninfected erythrocytes, providing an additional antibody-mediated protective mechanism for their activity beyond invasion-inhibition. Competition phagocytosis assays support the hypothesis that merozoite antigens are the key mediators of this functional activity. Targeting ring-stage parasites may contribute to the control of parasitaemia and prevention of clinical malaria.
\n \n\n \n \nBackgroundRTS,S/AS01 induced anti-circumsporozoite protein (CSP) IgG antibodies are associated with the vaccine efficacy. There is currently no international standardisation of the assays used in the measurement of anti-CSP IgG antibody concentrations for use in evaluations of the vaccine's immunogenicity and/or efficacy. Here, we compared the levels of RTS,S/AS01 induced anti-CSP IgG antibodies measured using three different enzyme-Linked ImmunoSorbent Assays (ELISA).Methods196 plasma samples were randomly selected from the 447 samples collected during the RTS,S/AS01 phase IIb trial in 2007 from Kenyan children aged between 5-17 months. The vaccine-induced anti-CSP IgG antibodies were then measured using two independently developed ELISA protocols ('Kilifi-RTS,S' and 'Oxford-R21') and compared to the results from the reference 'Ghent-RTS,S' protocol for the same participants. For each pair of protocols, a deming regression model was fitted. Linear equations were then derived to aid in conversions into equivalent ELISA units. The agreement was assessed using Bland and Altman method.FindingsThe anti-CSP IgG antibodies measured from the three ELISA protocols were in agreement, and were positively and linearly correlated; 'Oxford' and 'Kilifi' r = 0.93 (95% CI 0.91-0.95), 'Oxford' and 'Ghent' r = 0.94 (95% CI: 0.92-0.96), and 'Kilifi' and 'Ghent' r = 0.97 (95% CI: 0.96-0.98), p<0.0001 for all correlations.ConclusionsWith the linearity, agreement and correlations established between the assays, conversion equations can be applied to convert results into equivalent units, enabling comparisons of immunogenicities across different vaccines of the same CSP antigens. This study highlights the need for the international harmonisation of anti-CSP antibody measurements.
\n \n\n \n \nNatural killer (NK) cells are potent immune effectors that can be activated via antibody-mediated Fc receptor engagement. Using multiparameter flow cytometry, we found that NK cells degranulate and release IFN-\u03b3 upon stimulation with antibody-opsonized Plasmodium falciparum merozoites. Antibody-dependent NK (Ab-NK) activity was largely strain transcending and enhanced invasion inhibition into erythrocytes. Ab-NK was associated with the successful control of parasitemia after experimental malaria challenge in African adults. In an independent cohort study in children, Ab-NK increased with age, was boosted by concurrent P. falciparum infections, and was associated with a lower risk of clinical episodes of malaria. Nine of the 14 vaccine candidates tested induced Ab-NK, including some less well-characterized antigens: P41, P113, MSP11, RHOPH3, and Pf_11363200. These data highlight an important role of Ab-NK activity in immunity against malaria and provide a potential mechanism for evaluating vaccine candidates.
\n \n\n \n \nBackgroundPlasmodium falciparum variant surface antigens (VSAs) contribute to malaria pathogenesis by mediating cytoadhesion of infected red blood cells to the microvasculature endothelium. In this study, we investigated the association between anti-VSA antibodies and clinical outcome in a controlled human malaria infection (CHMI) study.MethodWe used flow cytometry and ELISA to measure levels of IgG antibodies to VSAs of five heterologous and one homologous P. falciparum parasite isolates, and to two PfEMP1 DBL\u03b2 domains in blood samples collected a day before the challenge and 14 days after infection. We also measured the ability of an individual's plasma to inhibit the interaction between PfEMP1 and ICAM1 using competition ELISA. We then assessed the association between the antibody levels, function, and CHMI defined clinical outcome during a 21-day follow-up period post infection using Cox proportional hazards regression.ResultsAntibody levels to the individual isolate VSAs, or to two ICAM1-binding DBL\u03b2 domains of PfEMP1, were not associated with a significantly reduced risk of developing parasitemia or of meeting treatment criteria after the challenge after adjusting for exposure. However, anti-VSA antibody breadth (i.e., cumulative response to all the isolates) was a significant predictor of reduced risk of requiring treatment [HR 0.23 (0.10-0.50) p= 0.0002].ConclusionThe breadth of IgG antibodies to VSAs, but not to individual isolate VSAs, is associated with protection in CHMI.
\n \n\n \n \nSummaryProgression to aggressive secondary acute myeloid leukaemia (sAML) poses a significant challenge in the management of myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs). Since the physiopathology of MPN is closely linked to the activation of interferon (IFN) signalling and that AML initiation and aggressiveness is driven by leukaemia stem cells (LSCs), we investigated these pathways in MPN to sAML progression. We found that high IFN signalling correlated with low LSC signalling in MPN and AML samples, while MPN progression and AML transformation were characterized by decreased IFN signalling and increased LSC signature. A high LSC to IFN expression ratio in MPN patients was associated with adverse clinical prognosis and higher colony forming potential. Moreover, treatment with hypomethylating agents (HMAs) activates the IFN signalling pathway in MPN cells by inducing a viral mimicry response. This response is characterized by double\u2010stranded RNA (dsRNA) formation and MDA5/RIG\u2010I activation. The HMA\u2010induced IFN response leads to a reduction in LSC signature, resulting in decreased stemness. These findings reveal the frequent evasion of viral mimicry during MPN\u2010to\u2010sAML progression, establish the LSC\u2010to\u2010IFN expression ratio as a progression biomarker, and suggests that HMAs treatment can lead to haematological response in murine models by re\u2010activating dsRNA\u2010associated IFN signalling.
\n \n\n \n \nBackgroundThe northwestern border of Thailand is an area of low seasonal malaria transmission. Until recent successful malaria elimination activities, malaria was a major cause of morbidity and mortality. Historically the incidences of symptomatic Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria were approximately similar.MethodsAll malaria cases managed in the Shoklo Malaria Research Unit along the Thailand-Myanmar border between 2000 and 2016 were reviewed.ResultsThere were 80,841 consultations for symptomatic P. vivax and 94,467 for symptomatic P. falciparum malaria. Overall 4,844 (5.1%) patients with P. falciparum malaria were admitted to field hospitals, of whom 66 died, compared with 278 (0.34%) with P. vivax malaria, of whom four died (three were diagnosed with sepsis, so the contribution of malaria to their fatal outcomes is uncertain). Applying the 2015 \"World Health Organization severe malaria criteria\", 68/80,841 (0.08%) of P. vivax and 1,482/94,467 (1.6%) of P. falciparum admissions were classified as severe. Overall, patients with P. falciparum malaria were 15 (95% CI 13.2-16.8) times more likely than P. vivax to require hospital admission, 19 (95% CI 14.6-23.8) times more likely to develop severe malaria, and at least 14 (95% CI 5.1-38.7) times more likely to die.ConclusionsIn this area both P. falciparum and P. vivax infections were important causes of hospitalization, but life-threatening P. vivax illness was rare.
\n \n\n \n \nObjectivesTo examine antibody responses after the second vaccination in healthcare workers (HCWs) with underlying health conditions.DesignCohort study.SettingOxford University Hospitals in the United Kingdom.ParticipantsHealthcare workers who had SARS-CoV-2 serological data available and received two SARS-CoV- 2 vaccinations.Primary outcomePeak SARS-CoV-2 anti-spike IgG responses after the second vaccination and associations with underlying health conditions and the estimated risk of severe COVID-19 using an occupational health risk assessment tool.MethodsWe used univariable and multivariable linear regression models to investigate associations between antibody levels and demographics (age, sex, ethnicity), healthcare role, body mass index, underlying health conditions, vaccination status, prior infection and the Association of Local Authority Medical Advisors COVID-age risk score.Results1635 HCWs had anti-spike IgG measurements 14-84\u2009days after second vaccination and data on any underlying health conditions. Only five HCWs (0.3%), all on immunosuppressive treatment, (including four organ transplant recipients), did not seroconvert after second vaccination. Antibody levels were independently lower with older age, diabetes, immunosuppression, respiratory disorders other than asthma and markedly so in organ transplant recipients. Levels were independently lower in ChAdOx1 versus BNT162b2 recipients and higher following previous infection. HCWs with 'very high' COVID-age risk scores had lower median antibody levels than those with 'low', 'medium' or 'high' risk scores; 4379 AU/mL, compared with 12\u2009337 AU/mL, 9430 AU/mL and 10\u2009524 AU/mL, respectively.ConclusionsTwo vaccine doses are effective in generating antibody responses among HCWs, including those with a high occupational risk. However, HCWs with underlying health conditions, especially diabetes, immunosuppression and organ transplant, had lower antibody levels, and vaccine response monitoring may be needed.
\n \n\n \n \nT cell-driven autoimmune responses are subject to striking sex-dependent effects. While the contributions of sex hormones are well-understood, those of sex chromosomes are meeting with increased appreciation. Here, we outline what is known about the contribution of sex chromosome-linked factors to experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE), a mouse model that recapitulates many of the T cell-driven mechanisms of multiple sclerosis (MS) pathology. Particular attention is paid to the KDM family of histone demethylases, several of which - KDM5C, KDM5D and KDM6A - are sex chromosome encoded. Finally, we provide evidence that functional inhibition of KDM5 molecules can suppress interferon (IFN)\u03b3 production from murine male effector T cells, and that an increased ratio of inflammatory Kdm6a to immunomodulatory Kdm5c transcript is observed in T helper 17 (Th17) cells from women with the autoimmune disorder ankylosing spondylitis (AS). Histone lysine demethlyases thus represent intriguing targets for the treatment of T cell-driven autoimmune disorders.
\n \n\n \n \nIntroduction: Vaccines and drugs for the treatment and prevention of COVID-19 require robust evidence generated from clinical trials before they can be used. Decisions on how to apply non-pharmaceutical interventions such as quarantine, self-isolation, social distancing and travel restrictions should also be based on evidence. There are some experiential and mathematical modelling data for these interventions, but there is a lack of data on the social, ethical and behavioural aspects of these interventions in the literature. Therefore, our study aims to produce evidence to inform (non-pharmaceutical) interventions such as communications, quarantine, self-isolation, social distancing, travel restrictions and other public health measures for the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: The study will be conducted in the United Kingdom, Italy, Malaysia, Slovenia and Thailand. We propose to conduct 600-1000 quantitative surveys and 25-35 qualitative interviews per country. Data collection will follow the following four themes: (1) Quarantine and self-isolation (2) social distancing and travel restrictions (3) wellbeing and mental health (4) information, misinformation and rumours. In light of limitations of travel and holding in-person meetings, we will primarily use online/remote methods for collecting data. Study participants will be adults who have provided informed consent from different demographic, socio-economic and risk groups. Discussion: At the time of the inception of the study, United Kingdom, Italy, Malaysia, Slovenia and Thailand have initiated strict public health measures and varying degrees of \"lockdowns\" to curb the pandemic. These public health measures will change in the coming weeks and months depending on the number of cases of COVID-19 in the respective countries. The data generated from our study could inform these strategies in real time.
\n \n\n \n \nChemoprevention with antimalarials is a key strategy for malaria control in sub-Saharan Africa. Three months of postdischarge malaria chemoprevention (PDMC) reduces malaria-related mortality and morbidity in pre-school children recently discharged from hospital following recovery from severe anemia. Research on adherence to preventive antimalarials in children is scarce. We aimed to investigate the predictors for caregivers' adherence to three courses of monthly PDMC in Malawi. We used data from a cluster randomized implementation trial of PDMC in Malawi (n = 357). Modified Poisson regression for clustered data was used to obtain relative risks of predictors for full adherence to PDMC. We did not find a conclusive set of predictors for PDMC adherence. The distribution of households across a socio-economic index and caregivers' education showed mixed associations with poor adherence. Caregivers of children with four or more malaria infections in the past year were associated with reduced adherence. With these results, we cannot confirm the associations established in the literature for caregiver adherence to artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs). PDMC combines multiple factors that complicate adherence. Our results may indicate that prevention interventions introduce a distinct complexity to ACT adherence behavior. Until we better understand this relationship, PDMC programs should ensure high program fidelity to sustain adherence by caregivers during implementation.
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