Dr Peter Horby
|Research Area:||Global Health|
|Scientific Themes:||Tropical Medicine & Global Health|
|Keywords:||Public health, influenza, emerging infections, epidemiology and antibiotic resistance|
Predicted geographic spread of swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) in Vietnam. Medians from 1000 model ...
Peter Horby is Senior Clinical Research Fellow and the former Director of the Oxford University Clinical Research Unit in Hanoi, Vietnam. The unit was established in early 2006 and conducts research on infectious diseases which crosses the disciplines of basic science, medical science and public health. The Unit has offices at both the National Institute for Infectious and Tropical Diseases, and the National Institue for Hygiene and Epidemiology. Major interests of the group are influenza and other respiratory infections and antibiotic resistance.
Current projects include: a household-based community cohort to study the transmission of seasonal and pandemic influenza; the role of host genetics in modulating susceptibility to avian influenza A/H5N1; measuring social contact patterns relevant to infectious disease transmission in urban and rural settings; a study of the factors driving high rates of antibiotic resistance; quantifying the immunological selection pressures on influenza; the clinical and molecular epidemiology of Klebsiella pneumoniae infections.
There are no collaborations listed for this principal investigator.
Serological studies are the gold standard method to estimate influenza infection attack rates (ARs) in human populations. In a common protocol, blood samples are collected before and after the epidemic in a cohort of individuals; and a rise in haemagglutination-inhibition (HI) antibody titers during the epidemic is considered as a marker of infection. Because of inherent measurement errors, a 2-fold rise is usually considered as insufficient evidence for infection and seroconversion is therefore typically defined as a 4-fold rise or more. Here, we revisit this widely accepted 70-year old criterion. We develop a Markov chain Monte Carlo data augmentation model to quantify measurement errors and reconstruct the distribution of latent true serological status in a Vietnamese 3-year serological cohort, in which replicate measurements were available. We estimate that the 1-sided probability of a 2-fold error is 9.3% (95% Credible Interval, CI: 3.3%, 17.6%) when antibody titer is below 10 but is 20.2% (95% CI: 15.9%, 24.0%) otherwise. After correction for measurement errors, we find that the proportion of individuals with 2-fold rises in antibody titers was too large to be explained by measurement errors alone. Estimates of ARs vary greatly depending on whether those individuals are included in the definition of the infected population. A simulation study shows that our method is unbiased. The 4-fold rise case definition is relevant when aiming at a specific diagnostic for individual cases, but the justification is less obvious when the objective is to estimate ARs. In particular, it may lead to large underestimates of ARs. Determining which biological phenomenon contributes most to 2-fold rises in antibody titers is essential to assess bias with the traditional case definition and offer improved estimates of influenza ARs. Hide abstract
Prospective community-based studies have provided fundamental insights into the epidemiology of influenza in temperate regions, but few comparable studies have been undertaken in the tropics. The authors conducted prospective influenza surveillance and intermittent seroprevalence surveys in a household-based cohort in Vietnam between December 2007 and April 2010, resulting in 1,793 person-seasons of influenza surveillance. Age-and sex-standardized estimates of the risk of acquiring any influenza infection per season in persons 5 years of age or older were 21.1% (95% confidence interval: 17.4, 24.7) in season 1, 26.4% (95% confidence interval: 22.6, 30.2) in season 2, and 17.0% (95% confidence interval: 13.6, 20.4) in season 3. Some individuals experienced multiple episodes of infection with different influenza types/subtypes in the same season (n = 27) or reinfection with the same subtype in different seasons (n = 22). The highest risk of influenza infection was in persons 5-9 years old, in whom the risk of influenza infection per season was 41.8%. Although the highest infection risk was in school-aged children, there were important heterogeneities in the age of infection by subtype and season. These heterogeneities could influence the impact of school closure and childhood vaccination on influenza transmission in tropical areas, such as Vietnam. © The Author 2012. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.2012This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0), which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. © The Author 2012. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. Hide abstract
An estimated 2.4 billion people live in areas at risk of dengue transmission, therefore the factors determining the establishment of endemic dengue in areas where transmission suitability is marginal is of considerable importance. Hanoi, Vietnam is such an area, and following a large dengue outbreak in 2009, we set out to determine if dengue is emerging in Hanoi. Hide abstract
The apparent family clustering of avian influenza A/H5N1 has led several groups to postulate the existence of a host genetic influence on susceptibility to A/H5N1, yet the role of host factors on the risk of A/H5N1 disease has received remarkably little attention compared to the efforts focused on viral factors. We examined the epidemiological patterns of human A/H5N1 cases, their possible explanations, and the plausibility of a host genetic effect on susceptibility to A/H5N1 infection. The preponderance of familial clustering of cases and the relative lack of non-familial clusters, the occurrence of related cases separated by time and place, and the paucity of cases in some highly exposed groups such as poultry cullers, are consistent with a host genetic effect. Animal models support the biological plausibility of genetic susceptibility to A/H5N1. Although the evidence is circumstantial, host genetic factors are a parsimonious explanation for the unusual epidemiology of human A/H5N1 cases and warrant further investigation. Hide abstract
N Engl J Med, 362 (1), pp. 86-87. | Read more2010. A community cluster of oseltamivir-resistant cases of 2009 H1N1 influenza.
The first cases of avian influenza A (H5N1) in humans in Vietnam were detected in early 2004, and Vietnam has reported the second highest number of cases globally. Hide abstract
Streptococcus suis can cause severe systemic infection in adults exposed to infected pigs or after consumption of undercooked pig products. S. suis is often misdiagnosed, due to lack of awareness and improper testing. Here we report the first fifty cases diagnosed with S. suis infection in northern Viet Nam. Hide abstract
A novel variant of influenza A (H1N1) is causing a pandemic and, although the illness is usually mild, there are concerns that its virulence could change through reassortment with other influenza viruses. This is of greater concern in parts of Southeast Asia, where the population density is high, influenza is less seasonal, human-animal contact is common and avian influenza is still endemic. Hide abstract
Lancet, 371 (9622), pp. 1392-1394. | Read more2008. Person-to-person transmission of influenza A (H5N1).
Prior to 2007, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 viruses isolated from poultry and humans in Vietnam were consistently reported to be clade 1 viruses, susceptible to oseltamivir but resistant to amantadine. Here we describe the re-emergence of human HPAI H5N1 virus infections in Vietnam in 2007 and the characteristics of the isolated viruses. Hide abstract
Since global availability of vaccine and antiviral agents against influenza caused by novel human subtypes is insufficient, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommends non-pharmaceutical public health interventions to contain infection, delay spread, and reduce the impact of pandemic disease. Virus transmission characteristics will not be completely known in advance, but difficulties in influenza control typically include peak infectivity early in illness, a short interval between cases, and to a lesser extent, transmission from persons with incubating or asymptomatic infection. Screening and quarantining entering travelers at international borders did not substantially delay virus introduction in past pandemics, except in some island countries, and will likely be even less effective in the modern era. Instead, WHO recommends providing information to international travelers and possibly screening travelers departing countries with transmissible human infection. The principal focus of interventions against pandemic influenza spread should be at national and community levels rather than international borders. Hide abstract
The World Health Organization's recommended pandemic influenza interventions, based on limited data, vary by transmission pattern, pandemic phase, and illness severity and extent. In the pandemic alert period, recommendations include isolation of patients and quarantine of contacts, accompanied by antiviral therapy. During the pandemic period, the focus shifts to delaying spread and reducing effects through population-based measures. Ill persons should remain home when they first become symptomatic, but forced isolation and quarantine are ineffective and impractical. If the pandemic is severe, social distancing measures such as school closures should be considered. Nonessential domestic travel to affected areas should be deferred. Hand and respiratory hygiene should be routine; mask use should be based on setting and risk, and contaminated household surfaces should be disinfected. Additional research and field assessments during pandemics are essential to update recommendations. Legal authority and procedures for implementing interventions should be understood in advance and should respect cultural differences and human rights. Hide abstract
To evaluate risk factors for human infection with influenza A subtype H5N1, we performed a matched case-control study in Vietnam. We enrolled 28 case-patients who had laboratory-confirmed H5N1 infection during 2004 and 106 age-, sex-, and location-matched control-respondents. Data were analyzed by matched-pair analysis and multivariate conditional logistic regression. Factors that were independently associated with H5N1 infection were preparing sick or dead poultry for consumption < or =7 days before illness onset (matched odds ratio [OR] 8.99, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.98-81.99, p = 0.05), having sick or dead poultry in the household < or =7 days before illness onset (matched OR 4.94, 95% CI 1.21-20.20, p = 0.03), and lack of an indoor water source (matched OR 6.46, 95% CI 1.20-34.81, p = 0.03). Factors not significantly associated with infection were raising healthy poultry, preparing healthy poultry for consumption, and exposure to persons with an acute respiratory illness. Hide abstract
Recent outbreaks of avian influenza A (H5N1) in poultry throughout Asia have had major economic and health repercussions. Human infections with this virus were identified in Vietnam in January 2004. Hide abstract
Clincial Research in Epidemics
A key lesson from a series of recent outbreaks of emerging pathogens of global public health importance including SARS-CoV, highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N1) virus, EV71, Nipah virus and the 2009 pandemic was that mounting clinical research in response to a rapidly emerging infectious disease is extremely challenging and often delayed. The clinical research response was cumbersome and slow despite years of global preparations for a potentially devastating influenza pandemic of avian ...