Improving modelling for epidemic response: a progress update from a community of UK infectious disease modellers.
Sherratt K., Carnegie AC., Kucharski A., Cori A., Pearson CAB., Hill EM., Fearon E., Nightingale E., Villabona-Arenas J., Pi L., Davies NG., van Elsland S., Funk S., Liu Y., Abbott S.
We reflect on the sustainability of modelling infectious disease outbreaks from the perspective of modelling as a field of practice. We formed a community of practice among UK infectious disease modellers who had contributed to the UK COVID-19 response. We previously used a participatory workshop approach to highlight issues in the infrastructure and incentives for outbreak modelling, and synthesized our experience into a set of 12 specific recommendations. Here, we track changes in the field of infectious disease modelling 1 year later, collecting the quantitative and qualitative views of change among 14 participants. We found participants continued to highlight a lack of ongoing, sufficient or appropriate action to develop outbreak modelling capacity in the UK, while positively noting collaborations among public health facing institutions. We emphasize the under-prioritization of funding for outbreak modelling outside of emergency response periods, and the continuation of unsustainable working practices. Correcting this is crucial to supporting evidence-based public health policy for outbreak preparedness and response.