new malaria vector in Africa: Predicting the expansion range of Anopheles stephensi and identifying the urban populations at risk

Significance In 2012, an unusual outbreak of malaria occurred in Djibouti City followed by increasingly severe annual outbreaks. Investigations revealed the presence of an Asian mosquito species; Anopheles stephensi , which thrives in urban environments. An. stephensi has since been identified in Ethiopia and Sudan. By combining data for An. stephensi across its full range (Asia, Arabian Peninsula, Horn of Africa) with spatial models that identify the species’ preferred habitat, we provide evidence-based maps predicting the possible African locations where An. stephensi could establish if allowed to spread. Our results suggest over 126 million people in cities across Africa could be at risk. This supports the WHO’s call for targeted An. stephensi control and prioritized surveillance.