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<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title> <jats:sec> <jats:title>Background</jats:title> <jats:p>Progress towards elimination of trachoma as a public health problem has been substantial, but the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has disrupted community-based control efforts.</jats:p> </jats:sec> <jats:sec> <jats:title>Methods</jats:title> <jats:p>We use a susceptible-infected model to estimate the impact of delayed distribution of azithromycin treatment on the prevalence of active trachoma.</jats:p> </jats:sec> <jats:sec> <jats:title>Results</jats:title> <jats:p>We identify three distinct scenarios for geographic districts depending on whether the basic reproduction number and the treatment-associated reproduction number are above or below a value of 1. We find that when the basic reproduction number is &amp;lt;1, no significant delays in disease control will be caused. However, when the basic reproduction number is &amp;gt;1, significant delays can occur. In most districts, 1 y of COVID-related delay can be mitigated by a single extra round of mass drug administration. However, supercritical districts require a new paradigm of infection control because the current strategies will not eliminate disease.</jats:p> </jats:sec> <jats:sec> <jats:title>Conclusions</jats:title> <jats:p>If the pandemic can motivate judicious, community-specific implementation of control strategies, global elimination of trachoma as a public health problem could be accelerated.</jats:p> </jats:sec>

Original publication

DOI

10.1093/trstmh/traa170

Type

Journal article

Journal

Transactions of The Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

Publisher

Oxford University Press (OUP)

Publication Date

06/03/2021

Volume

115

Pages

222 - 228