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Campylobacteriosis is among the world's most common foodborne illnesses, caused predominantly by the bacterium Campylobacter jejuni. Effective interventions require determination of the infection source which is challenging as transmission occurs via multiple sources such as contaminated meat, poultry, and drinking water. Strain variation has allowed source tracking based upon allelic variation in multi-locus sequence typing (MLST) genes allowing isolates from infected individuals to be attributed to specific animal or environmental reservoirs. However, the accuracy of probabilistic attribution models has been limited by the ability to differentiate isolates based upon just 7 MLST genes. Here, we broaden the input data spectrum to include core genome MLST (cgMLST) and whole genome sequences (WGS), and implement multiple machine learning algorithms, allowing more accurate source attribution. We increase attribution accuracy from 64% using the standard iSource population genetic approach to 71% for MLST, 85% for cgMLST and 78% for kmerized WGS data using the classifier we named aiSource. To gain insight beyond the source model prediction, we use Bayesian inference to analyse the relative affinity of C. jejuni strains to infect humans and identified potential differences, in source-human transmission ability among clonally related isolates in the most common disease causing lineage (ST-21 clonal complex). Providing generalizable computationally efficient methods, based upon machine learning and population genetics, we provide a scalable approach to global disease surveillance that can continuously incorporate novel samples for source attribution and identify fine-scale variation in transmission potential.

Original publication

DOI

10.1371/journal.pgen.1009436

Type

Journal article

Journal

PLoS genetics

Publication Date

10/2021

Volume

17

Addresses

Big Data institute, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Old Road Campus, Oxford, United Kingdom.

Keywords

Animals, Chickens, Humans, Campylobacter jejuni, Campylobacter Infections, Gastroenteritis, Bayes Theorem, Genetics, Population, Meat, Multilocus Sequence Typing, Machine Learning, Whole Genome Sequencing