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Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a recently described illness of humans that has spread widely over the past 6 months. With the use of detailed epidemiologic data from Singapore and epidemic curves from other settings, we estimated the reproductive number for SARS in the absence of interventions and in the presence of control efforts. We estimate that a single infectious case of SARS will infect about three secondary cases in a population that has not yet instituted control measures. Public-health efforts to reduce transmission are expected to have a substantial impact on reducing the size of the epidemic.

Original publication

DOI

10.1126/science.1086616

Type

Journal article

Journal

Science

Publication Date

20/06/2003

Volume

300

Pages

1966 - 1970

Keywords

Contact Tracing, Disease Outbreaks, Epidemiologic Methods, Hong Kong, Humans, Mathematics, Models, Statistical, Patient Isolation, Probability, Public Health Practice, Quarantine, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, Singapore, Stochastic Processes