Cookies on this website

We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you click 'Accept all cookies' we'll assume that you are happy to receive all cookies and you won't see this message again. If you click 'Reject all non-essential cookies' only necessary cookies providing core functionality such as security, network management, and accessibility will be enabled. Click 'Find out more' for information on how to change your cookie settings.

OBJECTIVES: To measure the receptive risks of malaria in Somalia and compare decisions on intervention scale-up based on this map and the more widely used contemporary risk maps. DESIGN: Cross-sectional community Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate (PfPR) data for the period 2007-2010 corrected to a standard age range of 2 to <10 years (PfPR(2-10)) and used within a Bayesian space-time geostatistical framework to predict the contemporary (2010) mean PfPR(2-10) and the maximum annual mean PfPR(2-10) (receptive) from the highest predicted PfPR(2-10) value over the study period as an estimate of receptivity. SETTING: Randomly sampled communities in Somalia. PARTICIPANTS: Randomly sampled individuals of all ages. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Cartographic descriptions of malaria receptivity and contemporary risks in Somalia at the district level. RESULTS: The contemporary annual PfPR(2-10) map estimated that all districts (n=74) and population (n=8.4 million) in Somalia were under hypoendemic transmission (≤10% PfPR(2-10)). Of these, 23% of the districts, home to 13% of the population, were under transmission of <1% PfPR(2-10). About 58% of the districts and 55% of the population were in the risk class of 1% to <5% PfPR(2-10). In contrast, the receptivity map estimated 65% of the districts and 69% of the population were under mesoendemic transmission (>10%-50% PfPR(2-10)) and the rest as hypoendemic. CONCLUSION: Compared with maps of receptive risks, contemporary maps of transmission mask disparities of malaria risk necessary to prioritise and sustain future control. As malaria risk declines across Africa, efforts must be invested in measuring receptivity for efficient control planning.

Original publication

DOI

10.1136/bmjopen-2012-001160

Type

Journal article

Journal

BMJ Open

Publication Date

2012

Volume

2