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Director of Wellcome since 2013, Jeremy Farrar was previously Director of our OUCRU Vietnam programme for 18 years. He has published almost 600 peer-reviewed scientific papers, and mentored many dozens of students and fellows.
Distinct patterns of vital sign and inflammatory marker responses in adults with suspected bloodstream infection.
ObjectivesTo identify patterns in inflammatory marker and vital sign responses in adult with suspected bloodstream infection (BSI) and define expected trends in normal recovery.MethodsWe included patients ≥16y from Oxford University Hospitals with a blood culture taken between 01-January-2016 to 28-June-2021. We used linear and latent class mixed models to estimate trajectories in C-reactive protein (CRP), white blood count, heart rate, respiratory rate and temperature and identify CRP response subgroups. Centile charts for expected CRP responses were constructed via the lambda-mu-sigma method.ResultsIn 88,348 suspected BSI episodes; 6,908(7.8%) were culture-positive with a probable pathogen, 4,309(4.9%) contained potential contaminants, and 77,131(87.3%) were culture-negative. CRP levels generally peaked 1-2 days after blood culture collection, with varying responses for different pathogens and infection sources (p<0.0001). We identified five CRP trajectory subgroups: peak on day-1 (36,091;46.3%) or 2 (4,529;5.8%), slow recovery (10,666;13.7%), peak on day-6 (743;1.0%), and low response (25,928;33.3%). Centile reference charts tracking normal responses were constructed from those peaking on day-1/2.ConclusionsCRP and other infection response markers rise and recover differently depending on clinical syndrome and pathogen involved. However, centile reference charts, that account for these differences, can be used to track if patients are recovering line as expected and to help personalise infection.
Predictability of B cell clonal persistence and immunosurveillance in breast cancer
AbstractB cells and T cells are important components of the adaptive immune system and mediate anticancer immunity. The T cell landscape in cancer is well characterized, but the contribution of B cells to anticancer immunosurveillance is less well explored. Here we show an integrative analysis of the B cell and T cell receptor repertoire from individuals with metastatic breast cancer and individuals with early breast cancer during neoadjuvant therapy. Using immune receptor, RNA and whole-exome sequencing, we show that both B cell and T cell responses seem to coevolve with the metastatic cancer genomes and mirror tumor mutational and neoantigen architecture. B cell clones associated with metastatic immunosurveillance and temporal persistence were more expanded and distinct from site-specific clones. B cell clonal immunosurveillance and temporal persistence are predictable from the clonal structure, with higher-centrality B cell antigen receptors more likely to be detected across multiple metastases or across time. This predictability was generalizable across other immune-mediated disorders. This work lays a foundation for prioritizing antibody sequences for therapeutic targeting in cancer.
HIV/HBV co-infection remodels the immune landscape and Natural Killer cell ADCC functional responses
Background: HBV and HIV co-infection is a common occurrence globally, with significant morbidity and mortality. Both viruses lead to immune dysregulation including changes in NK cells, a key component of antiviral defense and a promising target for HBV cure strategies. Here we used high-throughput single cell analysis to explore the immune cell landscape in people with HBV mono-infection and HIV/HBV co-infection, on antiviral therapy, with emphasis on identifying the distinctive characteristics of NK cell subsets that can be therapeutically harnessed. Results: Our data show striking differences in the transcriptional programs of NK cells. HIV/HBV co-infection was characterized by an overrepresentation of adaptive, KLRC2 expressing NK cells, including a higher abundance of a chemokine enriched (CCL3/CCL4) adaptive cluster. The NK cell remodeling in HIV/HBV co-infection was reflected in enriched activation pathways, including CD3ζ phosphorylation and ZAP-70 translocation that can mediate stronger ADCC responses and a bias towards chemokine/cytokine signaling. By contrast HBV mono-infection imposed a stronger cytotoxic profile on NK cells and a more prominent signature of ‘exhaustion’ with higher circulating levels of HBsAg. Phenotypic alterations in the NK cell pool in co-infection were consistent with increased ‘adaptiveness’ and better capacity for ADCC compared to HBV mono-infection. Overall, an adaptive NK cell signature correlated inversely with circulating levels of HBsAg and HBV-RNA in our cohort. Conclusions: This study provides new insights into the differential signature and functional profile of NK cells in HBV and HIV/HBV co-infection, highlighting pathways that can be manipulated to tailor NK cell-focused approaches to advance HBV cure strategies in different patient groups.
How Does the Proportion of Never Treatment Influence the Success of Mass Drug Administration Programs for the Elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis?
BackgroundMass drug administration (MDA) is the cornerstone for the elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF). The proportion of the population that is never treated (NT) is a crucial determinant of whether this goal is achieved within reasonable time frames.MethodsUsing 2 individual-based stochastic LF transmission models, we assess the maximum permissible level of NT for which the 1% microfilaremia (mf) prevalence threshold can be achieved (with 90% probability) within 10 years under different scenarios of annual MDA coverage, drug combination and transmission setting.ResultsFor Anopheles-transmission settings, we find that treating 80% of the eligible population annually with ivermectin + albendazole (IA) can achieve the 1% mf prevalence threshold within 10 years of annual treatment when baseline mf prevalence is 10%, as long as NT <10%. Higher proportions of NT are acceptable when more efficacious treatment regimens are used. For Culex-transmission settings with a low (5%) baseline mf prevalence and diethylcarbamazine + albendazole (DA) or ivermectin + diethylcarbamazine + albendazole (IDA) treatment, elimination can be reached if treatment coverage among eligibles is 80% or higher. For 10% baseline mf prevalence, the target can be achieved when the annual coverage is 80% and NT ≤15%. Higher infection prevalence or levels of NT would make achieving the target more difficult.ConclusionsThe proportion of people never treated in MDA programmes for LF can strongly influence the achievement of elimination and the impact of NT is greater in high transmission areas. This study provides a starting point for further development of criteria for the evaluation of NT.
hadge: a comprehensive pipeline for donor deconvolution in single-cell studies.
Single-cell multiplexing techniques (cell hashing and genetic multiplexing) combine multiple samples, optimizing sample processing and reducing costs. Cell hashing conjugates antibody-tags or chemical-oligonucleotides to cell membranes, while genetic multiplexing allows to mix genetically diverse samples and relies on aggregation of RNA reads at known genomic coordinates. We develop hadge (hashing deconvolution combined with genotype information), a Nextflow pipeline that combines 12 methods to perform both hashing- and genotype-based deconvolution. We propose a joint deconvolution strategy combining best-performing methods and demonstrate how this approach leads to the recovery of previously discarded cells in a nuclei hashing of fresh-frozen brain tissue.
Heart Rate Variability Measured from Wearable Devices as a Marker of Disease Severity in Tetanus.
Tetanus is a disease associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Heart rate variability (HRV) is an objective clinical marker with potential value in tetanus. This study aimed to investigate the use of wearable devices to collect HRV data and the relationship between HRV and tetanus severity. Data were collected from 110 patients admitted to the intensive care unit in a tertiary hospital in Vietnam. HRV indices were calculated from 5-minute segments of 24-hour electrocardiogram recordings collected using wearable devices. HRV was found to be inversely related to disease severity. The standard deviation of NN intervals and interquartile range of RR intervals (IRRR) were significantly associated with the presence of muscle spasms; low frequency (LF) and high frequency (HF) indices were significantly associated with severe respiratory compromise; and the standard deviation of differences between adjacent NN intervals, root mean square of successive differences between normal heartbeats, LF to HF ratio, total frequency power, and IRRR, were significantly associated with autonomic nervous system dysfunction. The findings support the potential value of HRV as a marker for tetanus severity, identifying specific indices associated with clinical severity thresholds. Data were recorded using wearable devices, demonstrating this approach in resource-limited settings where most tetanus occurs.
Field evaluation of a novel semi-quantitative point-of-care diagnostic for G6PD deficiency in Indonesia.
BackgroundThe WHO recommends routine testing of G6PD activity to guide radical cure in patients with Plasmodium vivax malaria. Females may have intermediate G6PD enzyme activity and to date, only complex diagnostics are able to reliably identify them. The semi-quantitative G6PD diagnostic "One Step G6PD Test" (Humasis, RoK; "RDT") is a lateral flow assay that can distinguish deficient, intermediate, and normal G6PD status and offers a simpler diagnostic alternative.MethodsG6PD status of participants enrolled in Malinau and Nunukan Regencies and the capital Jakarta was assessed with the RDT, and G6PD activity was measured in duplicate by reference spectrophotometry. The adjusted male median (AMM) of the spectrophotometry measurements was defined as 100% activity; 70% and 30% of the AMM were defined as thresholds for intermediate and deficient G6PD status, respectively. Results were compared to those derived from spectrophotometry at the clinically relevant G6PD activity thresholds of 30% and 70%.ResultsOf the 161 participants enrolled, 10 (6.2%) were G6PD deficient and 12 (7.5%) had intermediate G6PD activity by spectrophotometry. At the 30% threshold, the sensitivity of the RDT was 10.0% (95%CI: 0.3-44.5%) with a specificity of 99.3% (95%CI: 96.4-100.0%); the positive predictive value was 50.0% (95%CI: 1.3-98.7%) and the negative predictive value 94.3% (95%CI: 89.5-97.4%). The corresponding figures at the 70% threshold were 22.7% (95%CI: 7.8-45.4%), 100.0% (95%CI: 97.4-100.0%), 100.0% (95%CI: 47.8-100.0%) and 89.1% (95%CI: 83.1-93.5%), respectively.ConclusionWhile there is a dire need for an easy-to-use, economical, semi-quantitative diagnostic for the point of care, the observed performance of the "One Step G6PD Test" in its current form was insufficient to guide antimalarial treatment.
[Guidelines for clinical trial protocols for interventions involving artificial intelligence: the SPIRIT-AI extensionDiretrizes para protocolos de ensaios clínicos com intervenções que utilizam inteligência artificial: a extensão SPIRIT-AI].
The SPIRIT 2013 statement aims to improve the completeness of clinical trial protocol reporting by providing evidence-based recommendations for the minimum set of items to be addressed. This guidance has been instrumental in promoting transparent evaluation of new interventions. More recently, there has been a growing recognition that interventions involving artificial intelligence (AI) need to undergo rigorous, prospective evaluation to demonstrate their impact on health outcomes. The SPIRIT-AI (Standard Protocol Items: Recommendations for Interventional Trials-Artificial Intelligence) extension is a new reporting guideline for clinical trial protocols evaluating interventions with an AI component. It was developed in parallel with its companion statement for trial reports: CONSORT-AI (Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials-Artificial Intelligence). Both guidelines were developed through a staged consensus process involving literature review and expert consultation to generate 26 candidate items, which were consulted upon by an international multi-stakeholder group in a two-stage Delphi survey (103 stakeholders), agreed upon in a consensus meeting (31 stakeholders) and refined through a checklist pilot (34 participants). The SPIRIT-AI extension includes 15 new items that were considered sufficiently important for clinical trial protocols of AI interventions. These new items should be routinely reported in addition to the core SPIRIT 2013 items. SPIRIT-AI recommends that investigators provide clear descriptions of the AI intervention, including instructions and skills required for use, the setting in which the AI intervention will be integrated, considerations for the handling of input and output data, the human-AI interaction and analysis of error cases. SPIRIT-AI will help promote transparency and completeness for clinical trial protocols for AI interventions. Its use will assist editors and peer reviewers, as well as the general readership, to understand, interpret and critically appraise the design and risk of bias for a planned clinical trial.
[Reporting guidelines for clinical trial reports for interventions involving artificial intelligence: the CONSORT-AI extensionDiretrizes para relatórios de ensaios clínicos com intervenções que utilizam inteligência artificial: a extensão CONSORT-AI].
The CONSORT 2010 statement provides minimum guidelines for reporting randomized trials. Its widespread use has been instrumental in ensuring transparency in the evaluation of new interventions. More recently, there has been a growing recognition that interventions involving artificial intelligence (AI) need to undergo rigorous, prospective evaluation to demonstrate impact on health outcomes. The CONSORT-AI (Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials-Artificial Intelligence) extension is a new reporting guideline for clinical trials evaluating interventions with an AI component. It was developed in parallel with its companion statement for clinical trial protocols: SPIRIT-AI (Standard Protocol Items: Recommendations for Interventional Trials-Artificial Intelligence). Both guidelines were developed through a staged consensus process involving literature review and expert consultation to generate 29 candidate items, which were assessed by an international multi-stakeholder group in a two-stage Delphi survey (103 stakeholders), agreed upon in a two-day consensus meeting (31 stakeholders) and refined through a checklist pilot (34 participants). The CONSORT-AI extension includes 14 new items that were considered sufficiently important for AI interventions that they should be routinely reported in addition to the core CONSORT 2010 items. CONSORT-AI recommends that investigators provide clear descriptions of the AI intervention, including instructions and skills required for use, the setting in which the AI intervention is integrated, the handling of inputs and outputs of the AI intervention, the human-AI interaction and provision of an analysis of error cases. CONSORT-AI will help promote transparency and completeness in reporting clinical trials for AI interventions. It will assist editors and peer reviewers, as well as the general readership, to understand, interpret and critically appraise the quality of clinical trial design and risk of bias in the reported outcomes.
Differentially Private Statistical Inference through β-Divergence One Posterior Sampling
Differential privacy guarantees allow the results of a statistical analysis involving sensitive data to be released without compromising the privacy of any individual taking part. Achieving such guarantees generally requires the injection of noise, either directly into parameter estimates or into the estimation process. Instead of artificially introducing perturbations, sampling from Bayesian posterior distributions has been shown to be a special case of the exponential mechanism, producing consistent, and efficient private estimates without altering the data generative process. The application of current approaches has, however, been limited by their strong bounding assumptions which do not hold for basic models, such as simple linear regressors. To ameliorate this, we propose βD-Bayes, a posterior sampling scheme from a generalised posterior targeting the minimisation of the β-divergence between the model and the data generating process. This provides private estimation that is generally applicable without requiring changes to the underlying model and consistently learns the data generating parameter. We show that βD-Bayes produces more precise inference estimation for the same privacy guarantees, and further facilitates differentially private estimation via posterior sampling for complex classifiers and continuous regression models such as neural networks for the first time.