This Kemri Wellcome Trust brief describes a framework that low-and middle-income countries (LMICs) can use to guide their strategies for building systems and structures that support generation and use of model estimates. The framework is intended to be a tool to guide policy makers, funders/development partners and researchers in planning for and prioritising key interventions in improving their country’s capacity to generate and use mathematical models as part of the evidence eco-system in informing decisions.
The value of mathematical modelling as a tool for informing policy decisions has been demonstrated during the pandemic. Modelling has been used to assess and predict the potential impacts of the pandemic and guide public health responses. Specifically, models have been used to estimate transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the potential impact of public health responses (e.g., vaccinations, community-based measures, infection control and hygiene practices), inform health system interventions, and identify targeted or geographically specific control strategies.
Building systems and structures that support the generation, communication and use of modelling estimates to inform public health responses will be critical in responding to future pandemics and ensuring resilience of health systems during such public health emergencies. Wide ranging system changes and investments will be required to reach this
goal. This is especially significant in LMICs, whose health systems are already under a lot of strain and experience substantial resource constraints. However, many LMICs lack adequate infrastructure and technical capacity to support and strengthen the use of modelling estimates in decision making.
This brief describes a framework that LMICs can use to guide their strategies for building systems and structures that support generation and use of model estimates. The framework was developed in consultation with policymakers, policy advisors and infectious disease modellers and is supported by the findings from a multi-country study on the experiences and lessons learnt during COVID-19. The framework is intended to be a tool to guide policy makers, funders/development partners and researchers in planning for and prioritising key interventions in improving their country’s capacity to generate and use mathematical models as part of the evidence ecosystem in informing decisions.
This framework was developed in consultation with policymakers, policy advisors and infectious disease modellers and is supported by the findings from a multi-country study on the experiences and lessons learnt during COVID-19.