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Weekly swab positivity updates - Jan-Jun 2021

25 June 2021 - weekly update

  • In England, the percentage of people testing positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) continued to increase in the week ending 19 June 2021; we estimate that 122,500 people within the community population in England had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 103,900 to 142,500), equating to around 1 in 440 people.
  • In Wales, the percentage of people testing positive increased in the two weeks up to 19 June 2021, but the trend is uncertain in the week ending 19 June 2021; we estimate that 3,700 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 1,600 to 6,600), equating to around 1 in 830 people.
  • In Northern Ireland, the trend in the percentage of people testing positive remains uncertain in the week ending 19 June 2021; we estimate that 2,600 people in Northern Ireland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 900 to 5,400), equating to around 1 in 720 people.
  • In Scotland, the percentage of people testing positive increased in the week ending 19 June 2021; we estimate that 24,400 people in Scotland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 16,800 to 33,500) equating to around 1 in 220 people.
  • In the week ending 19 June 2021, cases that are compatible with the Delta variant B.1.617.2 have continued to increase in England and increased in Wales and Scotland, and was the most common variant group in England, Wales and Scotland.

18 June 2021 - weekly update

  • In England, the percentage of people testing positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) has continued to increase in the week ending 12 June 2021; we estimate that 105,000 people within the community population in England had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 88,500 to 124,000), equating to around 1 in 520 people.
  • In Wales, the percentage of people testing positive remains low in the week ending 12 June 2021; we estimate that 2,000 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 700 to 4,200), equating to around 1 in 1,500 people.
  • In Northern Ireland, the trend in the percentage of people testing positive remains uncertain in the week ending 12 June 2021; we estimate that 3,000 people in Northern Ireland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 1,100 to 5,900), equating to around 1 in 610 people.
  • In Scotland, the trend in the percentage of people testing positive remains uncertain in the week ending 12 June 2021; we estimate that 8,800 people in Scotland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 4,900 to 14,000) equating to around 1 in 600 people.
  • In the week ending 12 June 2021, cases that are compatible with the Delta variant B.1.617.2 have continued to increase in England, and this was the most common variant group.

11 June 2021 - weekly update

  • In England, the percentage of people testing positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) has continued to increase in the week ending 5 June 2021; we estimate that 96,800 people within the community population in England had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 80,500 to 114,400), equating to around 1 in 560 people.
  • In Wales, the percentage of people testing positive has increased in the two weeks up to 5 June 2021, however, the trend is uncertain in the week ending 5 June 2021; we estimate that 2,300 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 800 to 4,900), equating to around 1 in 1,300 people.
  • In Northern Ireland, the trend in the percentage of people testing positive is uncertain in the week ending 5 June 2021; we estimate that 2,600 people in Northern Ireland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 1,000 to 5,200), equating to around 1 in 700 people.
  • In Scotland, the percentage of people testing positive has increased in the two weeks up to 5 June 2021, however, the trend is uncertain in the week ending 5 June 2021; we estimate that 9,700 people in Scotland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 5,700 to 14,800) equating to around 1 in 540 people.
  • In the week ending 5 June 2021, cases that are not compatible with the Alpha variant (first identified in the UK) in England have continued to increase and are now the most common variant group; these are likely to be the Delta variant B.1.617.2 (first identified in India).
  • In the week ending 5 June 2021, cases that are compatible with the Alpha (UK) variant in Wales have continued to increase.

4 June 2021 - weekly update

  • In England, the percentage of people testing positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) has increased in the week ending 29 May 2021; we estimate that 85,600 people within the community population in England had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 71,900 to 100,900), equating to around 1 in 640 people.
  • In Wales, there are early signs of an increase in the percentage of people testing positive in the week ending 29 May 2021; we estimate that 2,900 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 1,000 to 5,800), equating to around 1 in 1,050 people.
  • In Northern Ireland, the trend in the percentage of people testing positive is uncertain in the week ending 29 May 2021; we estimate that 2,300 people in Northern Ireland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 800 to 4,800), equating to around 1 in 800 people.
  • In Scotland, the percentage of people testing positive has likely increased in the two weeks up to 29 May 2021, however, the trend is uncertain in the week ending 29 May 2021; we estimate that 7,700 people in Scotland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 4,100 to 12,500) equating to around 1 in 680 people.
  • In the week ending 29 May 2021, we have seen an increase in cases in England that are not compatible with the UK variant B.1.1.7 (labelled “Alpha” by the World Health organisation (WHO)); these are likely to be the variant B.1.617.2 (WHO “Delta”), first identified in India.
  • In the week ending 29 May 2021, we have seen an increase in cases that are compatible with the UK variant B.1.1.7 (WHO “Alpha”) in Wales.

28 May 2021 - weekly update

  • In England, the percentage of people testing positive for the coronavirus (COVID-19) continues to be low but there are potential signs of an increase in the two weeks ending 22 May 2021; we estimate that 48,500 people within the community population in England had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 38,400 to 60,200), equating to around 1 in 1,120 people.
  • In Wales, the percentage of people testing positive continues to be low in the week ending 22 May 2021; we estimate that 800 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 100 to 2,200), equating to around 1 in 3,850 people.
  • In Northern Ireland, there are early signs of a possible increase in the percentage of people testing positive in the week ending 22 May 2021; we estimate that 2,200 people in Northern Ireland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 700 to 4,900), equating to around 1 in 820 people.
  • In Scotland, the percentage of people testing positive has increased in the week ending 22 May 2021; we estimate that 8,300 people in Scotland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 4,400 to 13,700) equating to around 1 in 630 people.
  • In the week ending 22 May 2021, we have seen an increase in cases that are not compatible with the UK variant in England and Scotland; these are likely to be compatible with variant B.1.617.2, first identified in India.

21 May 2021 - weekly update

  • In England, the percentage of people testing positive for the coronavirus (COVID-19) shows early signs of a potential increase in the week ending 15 May 2021, although rates remain low; we estimate that 49,000 people within the community population in England had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 38,800 to 60,300), equating to around 1 in 1,110 people.
  • In Wales, the percentage of people testing positive remained low in the week ending 15 May 2021; we estimate that 700 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 100 to 2,000), equating to around 1 in 4,340 people.
  • In Northern Ireland, the trend in the percentage of people testing positive was uncertain in the week ending 15 May 2021; we estimate that 1,200 people in Northern Ireland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 300 to 2,900), equating to around 1 in 1,550 people.
  • In Scotland, the percentage of people testing positive has continued to decrease in the week ending 15 May 2021; we estimate that 2,700 people in Scotland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 1,000 to 5,200) equating to around 1 in 1,960 people.

14 May 2021 - weekly update

  • In England, the percentage of people testing positive for the coronavirus (COVID-19) has continued to decrease in the week ending 8 May 2021; we estimate that 40,800 people within the community population in England had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 31,900 to 50,900), equating to around 1 in 1,340 people.
  • In Wales, the percentage of people testing positive appears to have decreased in the week ending 8 May 2021; we estimate that 700 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 100 to 1,900), equating to around 1 in 4,230 people; the positivity estimate for Wales is currently very low.
  • In Northern Ireland, the percentage of people testing positive has decreased in the two weeks up to 8 May 2021; we estimate that 1,300 people in Northern Ireland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 300 to 3,000), equating to around 1 in 1,430 people.
  • In Scotland, the percentage of people testing positive has continued to decrease in the week ending 8 May 2021; we estimate that 4,200 people in Scotland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 1,900 to 7,700) equating to around 1 in 1,250 people.

7 May 2021  - weekly update

  • In England, the percentage of people testing positive for the coronavirus (COVID-19) has continued to decrease in the week ending 2 May 2021; we estimate that 46,100 people within the community population in England had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 36,300 to 56,900), equating to around 1 in 1,180 people.
  • In Wales, the percentage of people testing positive has decreased in the most recent two weeks up to 2 May 2021; we estimate that 1,500 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 400 to 3,400), equating to around 1 in 2,070 people.
  • In Northern Ireland, the percentage of people testing positive has remained level in the two weeks up to 2 May 2021; we estimate that 2,400 people in Northern Ireland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 900 to 5,000), equating to around 1 in 750 people.
  • In Scotland, the percentage of people testing positive has continued to decrease in the week ending 2 May 2021; we estimate that 6,900 people in Scotland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 3,600 to 11,600) equating to around 1 in 760 people.

30 April 2021 - weekly update

  • In England, the percentage of people testing positive for the coronavirus (COVID-19) has continued to decrease in the week ending 24 April 2021; we estimate that 54,200 people within the community population in England had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 43,700 to 66,100), equating to around 1 in 1,010 people.
  • In Wales, the percentage of people testing positive has decreased in the week ending 24 April 2021; we estimate that 1,900 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 700 to 4,100), equating to around 1 in 1,570 people.
  • In Northern Ireland, the percentage of people testing positive has decreased in the two weeks up to 24 April 2021; we estimate that 1,900 people in Northern Ireland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 600 to 4,100), equating to around 1 in 940 people.
  • In Scotland, the percentage of people testing positive has continued to decrease in the week ending 24 April 2021; we estimate that 8,200 people in Scotland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 4,500 to 13,200) equating to around 1 in 640 people.

23 April 2021 - weekly update

  • In England, the percentage of people testing positive for the coronavirus (COVID-19) has continued to decrease in the week ending 16 April 2021; we estimate that 90,000 people within the community population in England had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 75,900 to 105,700), equating to around 1 in 610 people.
  • In Wales, the percentage of people testing positive appears to have been level in the week ending 16 April 2021; we estimate that 3,600 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 1,700 to 6,400), equating to around 1 in 840 people.
  • In Northern Ireland, the percentage of people testing positive decreased in the two weeks up to 16 April 2021; we estimate that 2,800 people in Northern Ireland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 1,100 to 5,300), equating to around 1 in 660 people.
  • In Scotland, the percentage of people testing positive has continued to decrease in the week ending 16 April 2021; we estimate that 9,300 people in Scotland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 5,500 to 14,300) equating to around 1 in 560 people.

16 April 2021 - weekly update

  • In England, the percentage of people testing positive for the coronavirus (COVID-19) decreased in the week ending 10 April 2021; we estimate that 112,600 people within the community population in England had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 96,700 to 130,100), equating to around 1 in 480 people.
  • In Wales, the percentage of people testing positive decreased in the two weeks up to 10 April 2021; we estimate that 3,300 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 1,500 to 6,000), equating to around 1 in 920 people.
  • In Northern Ireland, the percentage of people testing positive decreased in the week ending 10 April 2021; we estimate that 2,600 people in Northern Ireland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 1,000 to 5,100), equating to around 1 in 710 people.
  • In Scotland, the percentage of people testing positive decreased in the week ending 10 April 2021; we estimate that 10,500 people in Scotland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 6,400 to 15,600) equating to around 1 in 500 people.
  • The percentage testing positive for COVID-19 by single year of age over time for the four UK countries is shown below.

9 April 2021 - weekly update

  • In England, the percentage of people testing positive for the coronavirus (COVID-19) was likely level over the two weeks up to 3 April 2021; we estimate that 161,900 people within the community population in England had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 142,000 to 183,200), equating to around 1 in 340 people.
  • In Wales, the percentage of people testing positive decreased in the two weeks up to 3 April 2021; we estimate that 3,800 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 1,900 to 6,500), equating to around 1 in 800 people.
  • In Northern Ireland, the percentage of people testing positive appeared level in recent weeks, but there was high uncertainty; we estimate that 6,100 people in Northern Ireland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 3,200 to 9,900), equating to around 1 in 300 people.
  • In Scotland, the percentage of people testing positive continued to decrease in the week ending 3 April 2021; we estimate that 13,000 people in Scotland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 8,200 to 19,000) equating to around 1 in 410 people.

1 April 2021 - weekly update

  • In England, the percentage of people testing positive for the coronavirus (COVID-19) has decreased in the week ending 27 March 2021; we estimate that 148,100 people within the community population in England had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 129,700 to 167,400), equating to around 1 in 370 people.
  • In Wales, the trend in the percentage of people testing positive is uncertain in the week ending 27 March 2021; we estimate that 5,300 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 2,900 to 8,700), equating to around 1 in 570 people.
  • In Northern Ireland, there are early signs of an increase in the percentage of people testing positive in the week ending 27 March 2021; we estimate that 8,200 people in Northern Ireland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 4,600 to 12,900), equating to around 1 in 220 people.
  • In Scotland, the percentage of people testing positive has likely decreased in the week ending 27 March 2021; we estimate that 16,600 people in Scotland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 11,100 to 23,400) equating to around 1 in 320 people.
  • The percentage testing positive for COVID-19 by single year of age over time for the four UK countries is shown below.

26 March 2021 - weekly update

  • In England, the percentage of people testing positive for the coronavirus (COVID-19) is likely to have levelled off in the week ending 20 March 2021; we estimate that 162,500 people within the community population in England had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 143,200 to 183,100), equating to around 1 in 340 people.
  • In Wales, the percentage of people testing positive appeared level in the week ending 20 March 2021, although there is high uncertainty; we estimate that 6,700 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 3,900 to 10,400), equating to around 1 in 450 people.
  • In Northern Ireland, the percentage of people testing positive appeared to have remained level in the week ending 20 March 2021, although there is high uncertainty; we estimate that 5,800 people in Northern Ireland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 3,100 to 9,500), equating to around 1 in 320 people.
  • In Scotland, the percentage of people testing positive increased over the two weeks up to 20 March 2021; we estimate that 21,500 people in Scotland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 15,600 to 28,500) equating to around 1 in 240 people.
  • The percentage testing positive for COVID-19 by region is shown below.

19 March 2021 - weekly update

  • In England, the percentage of people testing positive for the coronavirus (COVID-19) has continued to decrease in the week ending 13 March 2021; we estimate that 160,200 people within the community population in England had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 142,000 to 179,400), equating to around 1 in 340 people.
  • In Wales, the percentage of people testing positive has decreased in recent weeks, but the rate of decrease appears to have slowed in the week ending 13 March 2021; we estimate that 7,000 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 4,300 to 10,600), equating to around 1 in 430 people.
  • In Northern Ireland, the percentage of people testing positive appears level in the week ending 13 March 2021 although there is high uncertainty; we estimate that 5,800 people in Northern Ireland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 3,300 to 9,400), equating to around 1 in 315 people.
  • In Scotland, the percentage of people testing positive has appeared to show some increase in the week ending 13 March 2021; we estimate that 19,300 people in Scotland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 14,100 to 25,600) equating to around 1 in 275 people.
  • The percentage testing positive for COVID-19 by single year of age over time for the four UK countries is shown below.

12 March 2021 - weekly update

  • In England, the percentage of people testing positive for the coronavirus (COVID-19) has continued to decrease in the week ending 6 March 2021; we estimate that 200,600 people within the community population in England had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 180,200 to 222,900), equating to around 1 in 270 people.

  • In Wales, the percentage of people testing positive has continued to decrease in the week ending 6 March 2021; we estimate that 8,300 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 5,400 to 11,800), equating to around 1 in 365 people.
  • In Northern Ireland, the percentage of people testing positive appears to have levelled off in the week ending 6 March 2021; we estimate that 5,900 people in Northern Ireland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 3,400 to 9,200), equating to around 1 in 310 people.
  • In Scotland, the percentage of people testing positive appears to have levelled off in the week ending 6 March 2021; we estimate that 16,600 people in Scotland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 11,700 to 22,400) equating to around 1 in 320 people.

5 March 2021 - weekly update

  • In England, the percentage of people testing positive for the coronavirus (COVID-19) has continued to decrease in the week ending 27 February 2021; we estimate that 248,100 people within the community population in England had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 224,900 to 271,700), equating to around 1 in 220 people.

  • In Wales, the percentage of people testing positive has continued to decrease in the week ending 27 February 2021; we estimate that 10,600 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 7,300 to 14,800), equating to around 1 in 285 people.
  • In Northern Ireland, the percentage of people testing positive has continued to decrease in the week ending 26 February 2021; we estimate that 5,700 people in Northern Ireland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 3,300 to 8,900), equating to around 1 in 325 people.
  • In Scotland, the percentage of people testing positive has continued to decrease in the week ending 27 February 2021; we estimate that 15,600 people in Scotland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 11,000 to 21,300) equating to around 1 in 335 people.
  • The percentage of people testing positive continues to vary by age.

26 February 2021 - weekly update

  • In England, the percentage of people testing positive for the coronavirus (COVID-19) has continued to decrease in the week ending 19 February 2021; we estimate that 373,700 people within the community population in England had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 346,400 to 401,300), equating to around 1 in 145 people.

  • In Wales, the percentage of people testing positive has continued to decrease in the week ending 19 February 2021; we estimate that 14,700 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 11,100 to 18,800), equating to around 1 in 205 people.
  • In Northern Ireland, the percentage of people testing positive has continued to decrease in the week ending 19 February 2021; we estimate that 9,500 people in Northern Ireland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 6,600 to 13,100), equating to around 1 in 195 people.
  • In Scotland, the percentage of people testing positive has continued to decrease in the week ending 19 February 2021; we estimate that 23,400 people in Scotland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 18,600 to 29,000) equating to around 1 in 225 people.

19 February 2021 - weekly update

  • In England, the percentage of people testing positive for the coronavirus (COVID-19) decreased in the week ending 12 February 2021; we estimate that 481,300 people within the community population in England had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 451,600 to 512,400), equating to around 1 in 115 people.

  • In Wales, the percentage of people testing positive decreased in the week ending 12 February 2021; we estimate that 24,600 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 20,100 to 29,400), equating to around 1 in 125 people.
  • In Northern Ireland, the percentage of people testing positive decreased in the week ending 12 February 2021; we estimate that 17,800 people in Northern Ireland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 13,900 to 22,400), equating to around 1 in 105 people.
  • In Scotland, the percentage of people testing positive decreased in the week ending 12 February 2021; we estimate that 29,200 people in Scotland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 24,300 to 34,600) equating to around 1 in 180 people.

12 February 2021 - weekly update

  • In England, the percentage of people testing positive for the coronavirus (COVID-19) decreased in the week ending 6 February 2021; we estimate that 695,400 people within the community population in England had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 660,200 to 732,200), equating to around 1 in 80 people.

  • In Wales, the percentage of people testing positive decreased in the week ending 6 February 2021; we estimate that 35,300 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 29,700 to 41,500), equating to around 1 in 85 people.
  • In Northern Ireland, the percentage of people testing positive decreased in the week ending 6 February 2021; we estimate that 24,400 people in Northern Ireland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 19,700 to 29,600), equating to around 1 in 75 people.
  • In Scotland, the percentage of people testing positive decreased in the week ending 6 February 2021; we estimate that 35,400 people in Scotland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 30,100 to 41,000) equating to around 1 in 150 people.

5 February 2021 - weekly update

  • In England, the percentage of people testing positive for the coronavirus (COVID-19) decreased in the week ending 30 January 2021 but remains high; we estimate that 846,900 people within the community population in England had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 806,500 to 886,700), equating to around 1 in 65 people.

  • In Wales, the percentage of people testing positive remained level in the week ending 30 January 2021; we estimate that 42,700 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 36,200 to 49,500), equating to around 1 in 70 people.
  • In Northern Ireland, the percentage of people testing positive decreased in the week ending 30 January 2021; we estimate that 28,700 people in Northern Ireland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 23,600 to 34,400), equating to around 1 in 65 people.
  • In Scotland, the percentage of people testing positive decreased in the week ending 30 January 2021; we estimate that 46,100 people in Scotland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 39,600 to 53,100) equating to around 1 in 115 people.

29 January 2021 - weekly update

  • In England, the percentage of people testing positive for the coronavirus (COVID-19) remains high in the week ending 23 January 2021; we estimate that 1,018,700 people (95% credible interval: 976,200 to 1,061,600) within the community population in England had COVID-19, equating to around 1 in 55 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 55 to 1 in 50).
    • During the week ending 23 January 2021, London had the highest percentage of people testing positive; we estimate that 2.71% of people in London had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 2.52% to 2.91%), equating to around 1 in 35 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 40 to 1 in 35).

  • In Wales, the percentage of people testing positive has remained level over the week ending 23 January 2021; we estimate that 43,600 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 36,100 to 51,600), equating to around 1 in 70 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 85 to 1 in 60).
  • In Northern Ireland, the percentage of people testing positive has levelled off in the week ending 23 January 2021; we estimate that 36,800 people in Northern Ireland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 30,500 to 43,900), equating to around 1 in 50 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 60 to 1 in 40).
  • In Scotland, the percentage of people testing positive remained level in the week ending 23 January 2021; we estimate that 48,500 people in Scotland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 41,900 to 55,700), equating to around 1 in 110 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 125 to 1 in 95).
  • The percentage of cases that are compatible with the new variant increased in the East Midlands in the week ending 23 January 2021; rates were relatively stable or declining in all other regions.

22 January 2021 - weekly update

  • In England, the percentage of people testing positive for the coronavirus (COVID-19) remained high but decreased slightly in the week ending 16 January 2021; we estimate that 1,023,700 people (95% credible interval: 978,900 to 1,070,000) within the community population in England had COVID-19, equating to around 1 in 55 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 55 to 1 in 50).
    • During the week ending 16 January 2021, London had the highest percentage of people testing positive; we estimate that 2.89% of people in London had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 2.68% to 3.11%), equating to around 1 in 35 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 35 to 1 in 30).

  • In Wales, the percentage of people testing positive levelled off over the week ending 16 January 2021; we estimate that 44,000 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 36,000 to 52,800), equating to around 1 in 70 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 85 to 1 in 60).
  • In Northern Ireland, the percentage of people testing positive increased in the week ending 16 January 2021; we estimate that 29,400 people in Northern Ireland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 23,000 to 36,500), equating to around 1 in 60 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 80 to 1 in 50).
  • In Scotland, the percentage of people testing positive levelled off in the week ending 16 January 2021; we estimate that 52,200 people in Scotland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 44,400 to 60,800), equating to around 1 in 100 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 120 to 1 in 85).
  • The percentage of people with new variant compatible positives has decreased in London, the South East and the East of England in the week ending 16 January 2021; in other regions, increases in new variant compatible positives have generally levelled off.

8 January 2021 - weekly update

  • In the most recent week, the percentage of people testing positive for the coronavirus (COVID-19) in England has continued to increase; during the most recent week (27 December 2020 to 2 January 2021), we estimate 1,122,000 people (95% credible interval: 1,070,600 to 1,175,700) within the community population in England had the coronavirus (COVID-19), equating to around 1 in 50 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 50 to 1 in 45).
    • During the most recent week of the study (27 December 2020 to 2 January 2021), London had the highest proportion testing positive; we estimate that 3.56% of people in London had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 3.26% to 3.87%), equating to around 1 in 30 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 30 to 1 in 25).
  • The percentage of those testing positive has recently decreased in Wales; during the most recent week (27 December 2020 to 2 January 2021), we estimate that 44,100 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 33,700 to 56,300), equating to around 1 in 70 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 90 to 1 in 55).
  • The percentage testing positive in Northern Ireland appears to no longer be decreasing in the most recent week; during the most recent week (27 December 2020 to 2 January 2021), we estimate that 9,100 people in Northern Ireland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 5,400 to 14,000), equating to around 1 in 200 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 340 to 1 in 130).
  • The percentage testing positive in Scotland has increased over the most recent week; during the most recent week (25 to 31 December 2020), we estimate that 45,900 people in Scotland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 37,900 to 54,900), equating to around 1 in 115 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 140 to 1 in 95).
  • In the most recent time period (28 December 2020 to 2 January 2021), London, the East of England and the South East have the highest percentage of positive cases that are compatible with the new variant of the virus.

5 January 2021 - Estimates of COVID-19 cases to 2 January for England, regions of England and by cases compatible with the new variant

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