Every week, estimates of positivity rates and incidence are published in Office for National Statistics bulletins - summarised below.

Methods

26 November - weekly update

  • In recent weeks, the positivity rate in England has shown signs of levelling; during the most recent week (15 to 21 November 2020), we estimate 633,000 people (95% credible interval: 599,200 to 668,200) within the community population in England had the coronavirus (COVID-19), equating to around 1 in 85 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 90 to 1 in 80).
    • Over the last week, positivity rates have increased in the East Midlands and have continued to decrease in the North West, while the West Midlands, East of England, London, South East and South West now also appear to be decreasing; the highest positivity rates are seen in Yorkshire and The Humber, the North West and the North East. The latest sub-regional estimates are given below.
    • Over the last week, increases in the positivity rate can only be seen in secondary school-age children and positivity rates have decreased in adults aged 35 years and over, whilst it appears that rates among the youngest age group as well as those aged school year 12 to age 24 years and 25 to 34 years are levelling off; rates remain highest among secondary school-age children and young adults.

  • Positivity rates in Wales peaked around the end of October 2020, with positivity decreasing in recent weeks; during the most recent week (15 to 21 November 2020), we estimate that 16,400 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 10,500 to 23,900), equating to 1 in 185 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 290 to 1 in 125).
  • Positivity rates in Northern Ireland seem to have peaked around the middle of October 2020, with positivity decreasing over the most recent weeks; during the most recent week (15 to 21 November 2020), we estimate that 12,700 people in Northern Ireland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 8,100 to 18,600), equating to 1 in 145 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 225 to 1 in 100).
  • Positivity rates in Scotland have increased in the most recent week; during the most recent week (15 to 21 November 2020), we estimate that 45,700 people in Scotland had COVID-19 (95% confidence interval: 35,000 to 58,100), equating to 1 in 115 people (95% confidence interval: 1 in 150 to 1 in 90).

20 November - weekly update

  • There are substantial differences in positivity rates by region leading to a national positivity rate in England which is similar to last week; during the most recent week (8 November to 14 November 2020), we estimate 664,700 people (95% credible interval: 628,300 to 701,200) within the community population in England had the coronavirus (COVID-19), equating to around 1 in 80 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 85 to 1 in 80).
    • Over the last week, positivity rates have continued to increase in London, the East of England and the South East, however rates now appear to be decreasing in the North West and the East Midlands; the highest COVID-19 positivity rates remain in the North West and Yorkshire and The Humber.
    • We have published sub-regional estimates for the first time - you can see these below. 
    • The highest positivity rates are seen among secondary school-aged children and older teenagers and young adults, although trends vary between these groups; rates continue to increase in primary school-aged children and positivity rates appear to be levelling off in people aged 25 years and over.

  • During the most recent week (8 November to 14 November 2020), we estimate there were 7.14 new COVID-19 infections for every 10,000 people per day (95% credible interval: 6.29 to 8.09) in the community population in England, equating to around 38,900 new cases per day (95% credible interval: 34,300 to 44,100); the incidence rate appears to have levelled off in recent weeks.
  • Positivity rates in Wales seem to have peaked around the end of October, with rates decreasing over the past two weeks; during the most recent week (8 November to 14 November 2020), we estimate that 18,400 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 11,700 to 26,700), equating to 1 in 165 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 260 to 1 in 115).
  • Positivity rates in Northern Ireland seem to have peaked around the middle of October, with rates decreasing over the most recent four weeks; during the most recent week (8 November to 14 November 2020), we estimate that 13,600 people in Northern Ireland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 8,800 to 19,700), equating to 1 in 135 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 210 to 1 in 95).
  • Positivity rates in Scotland increased throughout most of October and now appear to have levelled off; during the most recent week (8 November to 14 November 2020), we estimate that 33,800 people in Scotland had COVID-19 (95% confidence interval: 23,600 to 45,300), equating to 1 in 155 people (95% confidence interval: 1 in 225 to 1 in 115).

13 November - weekly update

  • Positivity rates in England have increased in recent weeks, but the rate of increase is slower than previous weeks; during the most recent week (31 October to 6 November 2020), we estimate 654,000 people (95% credible interval: 619,400 to 689,800) within the community population in England had the coronavirus (COVID-19), equating to around 1 in 85 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 90 to 1 in 80).
    • Over the last week, positivity has increased in the South East, South West, East Midlands and the North East, whereas some other regions appear to have levelled off during this time period; the highest COVID-19 infection rates remain in the North West, and Yorkshire and The Humber.
    • The highest positivity rates are seen in secondary school-aged children, older teenagers and young adults; rates continue to increase in those aged 35 years and above, and rates are now decreasing in older teenagers and young adults, with rates appearing to have levelled off among younger children, teenagers and those aged 25 to 34 years.
  • During the most recent week (31 October to 6 November 2020), we estimate there were 8.75 new COVID-19 infections for every 10,000 people per day (95% credible interval: 7.25 to 10.93) in the community population in England, equating to around 47,700 new cases per day (95% credible interval: 39,500 to 59,600); the incidence rate has increased in recent weeks, and remains at about 50,000 new cases per day.
  • Positivity rates in Wales have increased in recent weeks; during the most recent week (31 October to 6 November 2020), we estimate that 35,300 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 25,500 to 46,600), equating to 1 in 85 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 120 to 1 in 65).
  • Positivity rates in Northern Ireland had increased in recent weeks but now appear to have levelled off; during the most recent week (31 October to 6 November 2020), we estimate that 17,800 people in Northern Ireland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 11,500 to 25,800), equating to 1 in 105 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 160 to 1 in 70).
  • Positivity rates in Scotland have increased over the last six weeks but it is too early to say that they have levelled off; during the most recent week (31 October to 6 November 2020), we estimate that 39,700 people in Scotland had COVID-19 (95% confidence interval: 28,300 to 52,800), equating to 1 in 135 people (95% confidence interval: 1 in 185 to 1 in 100).

6 November - weekly update

  • The infection rate has increased in recent weeks, but the rate of increase is less steep compared with previous weeks; an estimated 618,700 people (95% credible interval: 583,100 to 655,000) within the community population in England had the coronavirus (COVID-19) during the most recent week, from 25 to 31 October 2020, equating to around 1 in 90 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 95 to 1 in 85).
    • There have been increases in positivity rates in all age groups, except among older teenagers and young adults where rates now appear to be levelling off; however, the highest rates continue to be seen in this group.
    • There have been increases in positivity rates in all but one region (the North East) in England over the last two weeks; the highest COVID-19 infection rates remain in the North West and Yorkshire and The Humber.
  • During the most recent week (25 to 31 October 2020), we estimate there were around 8.38 new COVID-19 infections for every 10,000 people per day (95% credible interval: 6.92 to 10.93) in the community population in England, equating to around 45,700 new cases per day (95% credible interval: 37,700 to 59,600); incidence appears to have stabilised at around 50,000 new infections per day.
  • Positivity rates in Wales have increased in recent weeks, but the rate of increase is less steep compared with previous weeks; during the most recent week (25 to 31 October 2020), we estimate that 27,100 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 12,200 to 50,600), equating to 1 in 110 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 250 to 1 in 60).
  • Positivity rates in Northern Ireland have increased in recent weeks, but it is too early to say that they have levelled off; during the most recent week (25 to 31 October 2020), we estimate that 24,900 people in Northern Ireland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 13,400 to 42,300), equating to 1 in 75 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 135 to 1 in 45).
  • During the most recent two weeks of the study (18 to 31 October 2020) we estimate that an average of 47,300 people in Scotland had COVID-19 (95% confidence interval: 33,200 to 65,300); this equates to around 1 in 110 people (95% confidence interval: 1 in 160 to 1 in 80).

31 October - adhoc request [growth rates, for England and by region]

30 October - weekly update

  • The number of infections continues to increase; an estimated 568,100 people (95% credible interval: 536,500 to 600,400) within the community population in England had the coronavirus (COVID-19) during the most recent week, from 17 to 23 October 2020, equating to around 1 in 100 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 100 to 1 in 90).
    • There has been growth in all age groups over the past two weeks; older teenagers and young adults continue to have the highest current rates while rates appear to be steeply increasing among secondary school children.
    • The highest COVID-19 infection rates continue to be seen in the North West, and Yorkshire and The Humber; rates also remain high for the North East but have now levelled off and there is now a larger gap with the other two northern regions.
  • For England, the incidence rate continues to increase; during the most recent week (17 to 23 October 2020), we estimate there were around 9.52 new COVID-19 infections for every 10,000 people per day (95% credible interval: 7.06 to 14.53) in the community population in England, equating to around 51,900 new cases per day (95% credible interval: 38,500 to 79,200).
  • Positivity rates in Wales have increased in recent weeks; during the most recent week (17 to 23 October 2020), we estimate that 26,100 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 12,600 to 47,900), equating to 1 in 120 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 240 to 1 in 60).
  • Positivity rates in Northern Ireland have increased in recent weeks; during the most recent week (17 to 23 October 2020), we estimate that 24,300 people in Northern Ireland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 12,600 to 43,700), equating to 1 in 80 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 150 to 1 in 40).
  • During the most recent two weeks of the study (10 October to 23 October 2020) we estimate that the weighted positivity rate in Scotland was 0.71% (95% confidence interval: 0.48% to 1.01%); we estimate that an average of 37,400 people in Scotland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 25,300 to 53,300), this equates to around 1 in 140 people (95% confidence interval: 1 in 210 to 1 in 100).

23 October - weekly update

  • The number of infections continues to increase; an estimated 433,300 people (95% credible interval: 407,500 to 459,300) within the community population in England had the coronavirus (COVID-19) during the most recent week, from 10 to 16 October 2020, equating to around 1 in 130 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 130 to 1 in 120).
    • There has been growth in COVID-19 infection rates in all age groups over the past two weeks including those aged over 70 years, with the current rates highest in older teenagers and young adults.
    • The highest COVID-19 infection rates continue to be seen in the North West, Yorkshire and The Humber, and the North East.
  • During the most recent week (10 to 16 October 2020), we estimate there were around 6.46 new COVID-19 infections for every 10,000 people per day (95% credible interval: 5.46 to 8.55) in the community population in England, equating to around 35,200 new cases per day (95% credible interval: 29,800 to 46,600). The incidence rate has continued to increase in recent weeks.
  • In England, an estimated 5.6% (95% confidence interval 5.0% to 6.2%) of people would have tested positive for antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 on a blood test in September, suggesting they had the infection in the past; the highest antibody positivity was seen in London, followed by the North East, Yorkshire and The Humber and the North West.
  • The number of infections in Wales has increased in recent weeks; during the most recent week (10 to 16 October 2020), we estimate that 16,700 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 7,600 to 30,400), equating to 1 in 180 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 400 to 1 in 100).
  • In Wales, an estimated 4.2% (95% confidence interval 2.1% to 7.5%) of people would have tested positive for antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 on a blood test in September, suggesting they had the infection in the past.
  • During the most recent two weeks (3 to 16 October 2020), we estimate that 1.01% of people in Northern Ireland had COVID-19 (95% confidence interval: 0.64% to 1.50%), which is around 1 in 100 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 160 to 1 in 70).
  • For the first time we are reporting results for Scotland; during the most recent two weeks (3 to 16 October 2020), we estimate that 0.57% of people in Scotland had COVID-19 (95% confidence interval: 0.35% to 0.88%), which is around 1 in 180 people (95% confidence interval: 1 in 290 to 1 in 110).

16 October - weekly update

  • An estimated 336,500 people (95% credible interval: 312,200 to 362,000) within the community population in England had the coronavirus (COVID-19) during the most recent week, from 2 to 8 October 2020, equating to around 1 in 160 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 170 to 1 in 150). The estimate shows the number of infections has continued to increase rapidly in recent weeks.
    • In recent weeks, there has been clear evidence of an increase in the number of people testing positive for COVID-19, with the current rates highest in older teenagers and young adults; smaller increases are also apparent across all of the other age groups, apart from individuals aged 70 years and over.
    • There is clear evidence of variation in COVID-19 infection rates across the regions of England, with highest rates seen in the North West, Yorkshire and The Humber, and the North East, which have all seen steep increases in recent weeks.
  • During the most recent week (2 to 8 October 2020), we estimate there were around 5.11 new COVID-19 infections for every 10,000 people per day (95% credible interval: 4.15 to 6.99) in the community population in England, equating to around 27,900 new cases per day (95% credible interval: 22,700 to 38,200). The incidence rate has continued to increase in recent weeks.
  • During the most recent week (2 to 8 October 2020), we estimate that 7,900 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 2,400 to 18,200), equating to 1 in 390 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 1,250 to 1 in 170). For Wales, the estimate shows there is some evidence that positivity rates may now have levelled off, although uncertainty is high.
  • During the most recent two weeks (25 September to 8 October 2020), we estimate that 0.41% of people in Northern Ireland had COVID-19 (95% confidence interval: 0.19% to 0.78%), which is around 1 in 250 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 540 to 1 in 130)

9 October - weekly update

  • An estimated 224,400 people (95% credible interval: 203,800 to 245,700) within the community population in England had the coronavirus (COVID-19) during the most recent week, from 25 September to 1 October 2020, equating to around 1 in 240 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 270 to 1 in 220). The estimate shows the number of infections has increased rapidly in recent weeks.
    • In recent weeks the highest rates of people testing positive for COVID-19 are among older teenagers and young adults.
    • There is clear evidence of variation in COVID-19 infection rates across the regions of England, with highest rates seen in the North East, North West, and Yorkshire and The Humber.
  • During the most recent week (25 September to 1 October 2020), we estimate there were around 3.16 new COVID-19 infections for every 10,000 people per day (95% credible interval: 2.53 to 4.19) in the community population in England, equating to around 17,200 new cases per day (95% credible interval: 13,800 to 22,900). There has been a marked increase in the incidence rate over the last six weeks.
  • During the most recent week (25 September to 1 October 2020), we estimate that 6,100 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 1,900 to 14,600), equating to 1 in 500 people (95 % credible interval: 1 in 1,600 to 1 in 200).
  • During the most recent two weeks (18 September to 1 October 2020), we estimate that 0.22% of people in Northern Ireland had COVID-19 (95% confidence interval: 0.05% to 0.60%), which is around 1 in 500 people (95 % credible interval: 1 in 1,900 to 1 in 200).

2 October - weekly update

  • An estimated 116,600 people (95% credible interval: 101,000 to 133,100) within the community population in England had the coronavirus (COVID-19) during the most recent week, from 18 to 24 September 2020, equating to around 1 in 500 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 500 to 1 in 400). The estimate shows the number of infections has increased in recent weeks.
    • In recent weeks, there has been clear evidence of an increase in the number of people testing positive for COVID-19, with the current rates highest in teenagers and young adults.
    • There is evidence of higher infection rates in the North West and North East, as well as Yorkshire and The Humber and London.
  • During the most recent week (18 to 24 September 2020), we estimate there were around 1.54 new COVID-19 infections for every 10,000 people per day (95% credible interval: 1.19 to 1.96) in the community population in England, equating to around 8,400 new cases per day (95% credible interval: 6,500 to 10,700). There is uncertainty around the incidence rate for England in the most recent period; there is some limited evidence that the incidence rate may be levelling off following steep increases during August and September, however the wide credible intervals mean it is too early to say.
  • During the most recent week (18 to 24 September 2020), we estimate that 6,400 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 2,700 to 12,100), equating to 1 in 500 people (95 % credible interval: 1 in 1,100 to 1 in 300).
  • During the most recent two weeks (11 to 24 September 2020), we estimate that 0.26% of people in Northern Ireland had COVID-19 (95% confidence interval: 0.08% to 0.64%), which is around 1 in 400 people (95 % credible interval: 1 in 1,200 to 1 in 200).

25 September - weekly update

  • An estimated 103,600 people (95% credible interval: 85,600 to 123,400) within the community population in England had the coronavirus (COVID-19) during the most recent week, from 13 to 19 September 2020, equating to around 1 in 500 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 600 to 1 in 400). The number of infections has increased in recent weeks.
    • In recent weeks, there has been clear evidence of an increase in the number of people testing positive for COVID-19 in all age groups, with the current rates highest in the 17 to 24 years age group. 
    • There is evidence of higher infection rates in the North West, Yorkshire and the Humber, London and North East; both West and East Midlands are recently showing a small increase.
  • During the most recent week (13 to 19 September 2020), we estimate there were around 1.75 (95% credible interval: 1.31 to 2.30) new COVID-19 infections for every 10,000 people per day in the community population in England, equating to around 9,600 new cases per day (95% credible interval: 7,100 to 12,600). The incidence rate for England has increased in recent weeks.
  • In England, between 26 April and 08 September, 6.2% of people tested positive for antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 on a blood test, suggesting they had the infection in the past; the percentage of people testing positive for antibodies is higher in London than in the East Midlands, the South East and the South West of England.
  • During the most recent week (13 to 19 September 2020), we estimate that 10,800 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 4,400 to 20,200), equating to 1 in 300 people (95 % credible interval: 1 in 700 to 1 in 200).
  • We have extended the survey to Northern Ireland; during the most recent two weeks (6 to 19 September 2020), we estimate that 0.35% of people in Northern Ireland had COVID-19 (95% confidence interval: 0.11% to 0.84%), which is around 1 in 300 people (95 % credible interval: 1 in 900 to 1 in 100).

18 September - weekly update

  • An estimated 59,800 people (95% credible interval: 46,900 to 75,200) within the community population in England had the coronavirus (COVID-19) during the most recent week, from 4 to 10 September 2020, equating to around 1 in 900 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 1,200 to 1 in 700). The estimate shows the number of infections has increased in recent weeks.
    • In recent weeks, there has been clear evidence of an increase in the number of people testing positive for COVID-19 aged 2 to 11 years, 17 to 24 years and 25 to 34 years.
    • There is evidence of higher infection rates in the North West and London.
  • During the most recent week (4 to 10 September 2020), we estimate there were around 1.10 (95% credible interval: 0.77 to 1.51) new COVID-19 infections for every 10,000 people per day in the community population in England, equating to around 6,000 new cases per day (95% credible interval: 4,200 to 8,300). The estimates show that the incidence rate for England has increased in recent weeks.
  • During the most recent week (4 to 10 September 2020), we estimate that 1,500 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 400 to 3,900), which is around 1 in 2,000 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 8,200 to 1 in 800).

11 September - weekly update

  • An estimated 39,700 people (95% credible interval: 29,300 to 52,700) within the community population in England had the coronavirus (COVID-19) during the most recent week, from 30 August to 5 September 2020, equating to around 1 in 1,400 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 1,900 to 1 in 1,000). The most recent modelled estimate suggests the number of infections has increased in recent weeks.
  • In recent weeks, there has been an increase in the number of people testing positive for COVID-19 aged 17 to 24 years and 25 to 34 years whereas the number of people testing positive for COVID-19 aged 50 years and over appears to be stable or declining.
  • During the most recent week (30 August to 5 September 2020), we estimate there were around 0.58 (95% credible interval: 0.38 to 0.84) new COVID-19 infections for every 10,000 people per day in the community population in England, equating to around 3,200 new cases per day (95% credible interval: 2,000 to 4,600). Evidence suggests that the incidence rate for England has increased in recent weeks.
  • During the most recent week (30 August to 5 September 2020), we estimate that 1,200 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 300 to 2,800), which is around 1 in 2,600 people (95 % credible interval: 1 in 10,900 to 1 in 1,100).

4 September 2020 - weekly update

  • An estimated 27,100 people (95% credible interval: 19,300 to 36,700) within the community population in England had the coronavirus (COVID-19) during the most recent week, from 19 to 25 August 2020, equating to around 1 in 2,000 individuals (95% credible interval: 1 in 2,800 to 1 in 1,500). There is some evidence of a small increase in the percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 in July, following a low point in June, which has continued to level off.
  • During the most recent week (19 to 25 August 2020), we estimate there were around 0.36 (95% credible interval: 0.21 to 0.58) new COVID-19 infections for every 10,000 people per day in the community population in England, equating to around 2,000 new cases per day (95% credible interval: 1,100 to 3,200). Evidence suggests that the incidence rate for England remains unchanged.
  • Between 26 April and 23 August, 6.0% of people tested positive for antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 on a blood test, suggesting they had the infection in the past; the percentage of people testing positive for antibodies is higher in London than in the East Midlands, South East and South West of England.
  • During the most recent week (19 to 25 August 2020), we estimate that 1,400 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 400 to 3,500), which is around 1 in 2,200 people (95 % credible interval: 1 in 8,300 to 1 in 900).

28 August 2020 - weekly update

  • An estimated 28,200 people (95% credible interval: 20,100 to 37,900) within the community population in England had the coronavirus (COVID-19) during the most recent week, from 14 to 20 August 2020, equating to around 1 in 1,900 individuals. There is some evidence of a small increase in the percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 in July, following a low point in June, but this continues to level off.
  • During the most recent week (14 to 20 August 2020), we estimate there were around 0.40 (95% credible interval: 0.21 to 0.69) new COVID-19 infections for every 10,000 people per day in the community population in England, equating to around 2,200 new cases per day (95% credible interval: 1,100 to 3,800). There is not enough evidence to say at this point that there has been a fall in incidence in the most recent week, therefore we continue to report that the incidence rate for England remains unchanged.
  • During the most recent week (14 to 20 August 2020), we estimate that 1,100 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 200 to 2,700), which is around 1 in 2,800 people.

21 August 2020 - weekly update

  • An estimated 24,600 people (95% credible interval: 16,900 to 33,800) within the community population in England had the coronavirus (COVID-19) during the most recent week, from 7 to 13 August 2020, equating to around 1 in 2,200 individuals. There is some evidence of a small increase in the percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 in July, following a low point in June, but this appears to have now levelled off.
  • During the most recent week (7 to 13 August 2020), we estimate there were around 0.44 (95% credible interval: 0.22 to 0.76) new COVID-19 infections for every 10,000 people per day in the community population in England, equating to around 2,400 new cases per day (95% credible interval: 1,200 to 4,200). There is not enough evidence to say at this point that there has been a fall in incidence in the most recent week, therefore we continue to report that the incidence rate for England has levelled off.
  • During the most recent week (7 to 13 August 2020), we estimate that 1,300 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 400 to 2,900), which is around 1 in 2,400 people.

14 August 2020 - weekly update

  • An estimated 28,300 people (95% credible interval: 19,000 to 40,700) within the community population in England had the coronavirus (COVID-19) during the most recent week, from 3 to 9 August 2020, equating to around 1 in 1,900 individuals. There is some evidence of a small increase in the percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 in July, following a low point in June, but this appears to have now levelled off.
  • During the most recent week (3 to 9 August 2020), we estimate there were around 0.69 (95% credible interval: 0.42 to 1.08) new COVID-19 infections for every 10,000 people in the community population in England, equating to around 3,800 new cases per day (95% credible interval: 2,300 to 5,900). There is evidence that the incidence rate for England has increased in the most recent weeks following a low point in June and appears to have now levelled off.
  • Between 26 April and 26 July, 6.2% of people tested positive for antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 on a blood test, suggesting they had the infection in the past. The percentage of people testing positive for antibodies is higher in London than in Yorkshire and The Humber, the East Midlands, the South East and the South West of England.
  • We have extended the survey to Wales; during the most recent week (3 to 9 August 2020), we estimate that 1,500 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 400 to 3,500), which is around 1 in 2,100 people.

7 August 2020 - weekly update

  • An estimated 28,300 people (95% credible interval: 18,900 to 40,800) within the community population in England had the coronavirus (COVID-19) during the most recent week, from 27 July to 2 August 2020, equating to around 1 in 1,900 individuals.
  • Modelling shows rates of people testing positive for COVID-19 have risen since the lowest recorded estimate, which was at the end of June, but there is evidence that this trend may be levelling off when compared with last week’s headline estimate.
  • There is no clear evidence from this survey to say whether COVID-19 infection rates differ by region in England, nor whether infection rates have increased in different regions over the past six weeks.
  • During the most recent week (27 July to 2 August 2020), we estimate there were around 0.68 (95% credible interval: 0.38 to 1.17) new COVID-19 infections for every 10,000 people in the community population in England, equating to around 3,700 new cases per day.
  • Modelling shows that the incidence rate has increased since the lowest recorded estimate, which was at the end of June, but there is evidence this trend may be levelling off when compared with last week’s headline estimate.
  • We have extended the survey to Wales. During the most recent week (27 July to 2 August 2020), we estimate that 1,400 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 400 to 3,400). This is around 1 in 2,200 people.

 

31 July 2020 - weekly update

  • An estimated 35,700 people (95% credible interval: 23,700 to 53,200) within the community population in England had COVID-19 during the most recent week, from 20 to 26 July 2020, equating to around 1 in 1,500 individuals. There is now evidence to suggest a slight increase in the number of people in England testing positive on a nose and throat swab in recent weeks.
  • There is not enough evidence to say with confidence whether COVID-19 infection rates differ by region in England, nor whether infection rates have increased in different regions over the past six weeks.
  • During the most recent week (20 to 26 July 2020), we estimate there were around 0.78 new COVID-19 infections for every 10,000 people in the community population in England, equating to around 4,200 new cases per day (95% credible interval: 2,200 to 8,100). Modelling of the rate of new infections over time suggests that there is now some evidence that the incidence of new infections has increased in recent weeks.
  • Between 26 April and 26 July, 6.2% of people tested positive for antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 on a blood test, suggesting they had the infection in the past.

24 July 2020 - weekly update

  • We estimate around 1 in 2,000 individuals within the community population in England had COVID-19 within the most recent week, from 13 to 19 July 2020. This equates to an estimated 27,700 people (95% credible interval: 18,500 to 39,900).
  • Modelling of the trend over time suggests that the decline in the number of people in England testing positive on a nose and throat swab has levelled off in recent weeks.
  • During the most recent week (13 to 19 July 2020), we estimate there were around 0.52 new COVID-19 infections for every 10,000 people in the community population in England, equating to around 2,800 new cases per day (95% confidence interval: 1,500 to 5,500).
  • Modelling of the incidence rate trend suggests that incidence of new infections decreased since mid-May and has now levelled off.

17 July 2020 - weekly update

  • We estimate around 1 in 2,300 individuals within the community population in England had COVID-19 within the most recent week, from 6 July to 12 July 2020. This equates to an estimated 24,000 people (95% credible interval: 15,000 to 34,000).
  • During the most recent week (6 July to 12 July), we estimate there were around two new COVID-19 infections for every 10,000 individuals in the community population in England, equating to around 1,700 new cases per day (95% confidence interval: 700 to 4,200).
  • Between 26 April and 8 July, 6.3% of people tested positive for antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 on a blood test, suggesting they had the infection in the past. 

9 July 2020 - weekly update

  • We estimate that an average of 1 in 3,900 individuals within the community population in England had COVID-19 at any given time between 22 June and 5 July 2020. This equates to an estimated average of 14,000 people (95% confidence interval: 5,000 to 31,000) within the community in England having COVID-19 between 22 June and 5 July 2020.
  • Modelling of the trend over time suggests that the decline in the number of people in England testing positive on a nose and throat swab has levelled off in recent weeks.
  • Modelling of the incidence rate trend over time suggests that incidence of new infections appears to have decreased since mid-May and has now levelled off.
  • During the 14-day period from 22 June to 5 July 2020, there were an estimated two new COVID-19 infections for every 10,000 individuals per week in the community population in England, equating to an estimated 1,700 new cases per day (95% confidence interval: 700 to 3,700).

2 July 2020 - weekly update

  • We estimate that an average of 1 in 2,200 individuals within the community population in England had COVID-19 at any given time between 14 June and 27 June 2020. This equates to an estimated average of 25,000 people (95% confidence interval: 12,000 to 44,000) within the community in England having COVID-19 between 14 June and 27 June 2020.
  • Modelling of the trend over time suggests that the decline in the number of people in England testing positive has levelled off in recent weeks.
  • Regional analysis showed a reduction in people testing positive for COVID-19 in previous weeks; these trends appear to be levelling off.
  • During the 14-day period from 14 June to 27 June 2020, there were an estimated five new COVID-19 infections for every 10,000 individuals per week in the community population in England, equating to an estimated 25,000 new cases per week (95% confidence interval: 13,000 to 46,000).
  • Modelling of the incidence rate trend over time suggests that incidence appears to have decreased between mid-May and early June 2020, but it has also since levelled off.
  • Of those individuals providing blood samples, 6.3% tested positive for antibodies to COVID-19 (95% confidence interval: 4.7% to 8.1%); this equates to 1 in 16 people or 2.8 million people in England.

 

25 June 2020 - weekly update

  • We estimate that an average of 1 in 1,100 individuals within the community population in England had COVID-19 at any given time between 8 June and 21 June 2020.
  • An estimated average of 51,000 people (95% confidence interval: 21,000 to 105,000) within the community in England had COVID-19 between 8 June and 21 June 2020.
  • Modelling of the trend over time suggests that the decline in the number of people in England testing positive has levelled off in recent weeks.
  • New modelling of the incidence rate trend over time suggests that incidence appears to have decreased between mid-May and early June, but has also since levelled off.
  • During the 14-day period from 8 June to 21 June, there were an estimated 4 new COVID-19 infections for every 10,000 individuals per week in the community population in England, equating to an estimated 22,000 new cases per week (95% confidence interval: 10,000 to 49,000).
  • New regional analysis shows a statistically significant reduction in people testing positive for COVID-19 in previous weeks; these trends are now levelling off.

 

18 June 2020 - weekly update

  • We estimate that an average of 1 in 1,700 individuals within the community population in England had COVID-19 at any given time between 31 May and 13 June 2020.
  • An estimated average of 33,000 people (95% confidence interval: 12,000 to 74,000) within the community in England had COVID-19 between 31 May and 13 June 2020, a clear decrease from the average of 149,000 people infected (95% confidence interval: 75,000 to 264,000) between 3 May and 16 May.
  • Modelling of the trend over time also shows evidence that the number of people in England testing positive has decreased since the study began on 26 April, and suggests that the decline may have slowed in recent weeks.
  • Over the whole period of the study, which began on 26 April, there were an estimated five new COVID-19 infections for every 10,000 individuals per week in the community population in England, equating to an estimated 26,900 new cases per week (95% confidence interval: 19,200 to 36,600).
  • Of those individuals providing blood samples, 5.4% tested positive for antibodies to COVID-19 (95% confidence interval: 4.3% to 6.5%); this equates to around 1 in 19 people.

 

12 June 2020 - weekly update

  • At any given time between 25 May and 7 June 2020, we estimated that an average of 0.06% of the community population had COVID-19 (95% confidence interval: 0.02% to 0.12%); this equates to an average of 33,000 people in England (95% confidence interval: 14,000 to 68,000).
  • Modelling of the trend over time shows evidence that the number of people in England testing positive has decreased.
  • There were an estimated 31,600 new COVID-19 infections per week in England (95% confidence interval: 22,200 to 43,500) between 26 April and 7 June 2020, equating to an incidence rate per week of 0.06 new cases per 100 people.

 

5 June 2020 - weekly update

  • At any given time between 17 May and 30 May 2020, we estimated that an average of 0.10% of the community population had COVID-19 (95% confidence interval: 0.05% to 0.18%); this equates to an average of 53,000 people in England (95% confidence interval: 25,000 to 99,000).
    • Modelling of the trend over time shows evidence that the number of people in England testing positive has decreased in recent weeks.
  • Individuals working outside the home show higher rates of positive tests than those who work from home.
  • Patient-facing healthcare workers and resident-facing social care workers show higher rates of positive tests than people not working in these roles.
  • While those who have symptoms are more likely to test positive than those without symptoms, out of those within our study who have ever tested positive for COVID-19, 29% reported any evidence of symptoms at the time of the visit or at either the preceding or following visit.
  • There were an estimated 39,000 new COVID-19 infections per week in England (95% confidence interval: 26,000 to 55,000) between 26 April and 30 May 2020, equating to an incidence rate per week of 0.07 new cases per 100 people.

 

28 May 2020  - weekly update

  • At any given time between 11 May and 24 May 2020, we estimated that an average of 0.24% of the community population had COVID-19 (95% confidence interval: 0.11% to 0.46%). This equates to an average of 133,000 people in England (95% confidence interval: 62,000 to 250,000); a similar level to the previous estimate indicating that the number of people with COVID-19 is relatively stable.
  • Patient-facing healthcare workers and resident-facing social care workers show higher rates of positive tests than people not working in these roles.
  • Individuals working outside the home show higher rates of positive tests than those who work from home.
  • While those who have symptoms are more likely to test positive than those without symptoms, out of those within our study who have ever tested positive for COVID-19, 21% reported any symptoms on the day of testing, and 30% around the time of testing.
  • There were an estimated 54,000 new COVID-19 infections per week in England (95% confidence interval: 34,000 to 86,000), a similar level to the previous estimate indicating that the number of new COVID-19 infections is relatively stable; this equates to an incidence rate per week of 0.10 new cases per 100 people.
  • Of those individuals providing blood samples, 6.78% (unweighted) tested positive for antibodies to COVID-19 (95% confidence interval: 5.21% to 8.64%); this equates to around 1 in 15 people.

 

21 May 2020 - weekly update

  • At any given time between 4 May and 17 May 2020, it is estimated that an average of 0.25% of the community population had COVID-19 (95% confidence interval: 0.16% to 0.38%),
  • This equates to an average of 137,000 people in England (95% confidence interval: 85,000 to 208,000); a similar level to the previous estimate indicating that the number of people with COVID-19 is relatively stable.
  • There were an estimated 61,000 new COVID-19 infections per week in England (95% confidence interval: 29,000 to 111,000); the incidence rate per week was 0.11 new cases per 100 people.
  • There is no evidence of differences in the proportions testing positive between men and women, or between the age categories 2 to 11, 12 to 19, 20 to 49, 50 to 69 and 70 years and over. There is no evidence of a difference between the proportions testing positive for patient-facing healthcare or resident-facing social care roles and people not working in these roles.

 

14 May 2020 - weekly update

  • Between 27 April and 10 May 2020, we estimated that an average of 0.27% of those living in private households in England had COVID-19 (95% confidence interval: 0.17% to 0.41%), corresponding to an average of 148,000 people in England (95% confidence interval: 94,000 to 222,000).
  • 10,705 participants’ swab test results were included in this analysis; 33 individuals in 30 households tested positive for COVID-19. The figures do not include people in hospital or care homes where rates of COVID-19 infection are likely to be higher.
  • We found higher rates in those working in patient-facing healthcare or resident-facing social care roles, but no evidence of differences in the proportions testing positive between the age categories of 2 to 19, 20 to 49, 50 to 69 and 70 years and over.

 

10 May 2020 - weekly update

  • Between 26 April and 8 May 2020, we estimated that an average of 0.24% of those living in private households in England had COVID-19 (95% confidence interval: 0.14% to 0.40%), corresponding to an average of 136,000 people in England (95% confidence interval: 76,000 to 225,000).
  • 7087 participants’ swab test results were included in this analysis.